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Jacksonville weekend weather

This weekend in Jacksonville, FL, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 90° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 100% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Showers
High 89°·Low 77°·Rain 79%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Thunderstorm
High 98°·Low 79°·Rain 79%
EuropeanECMWF
87°
Thunderstorm
High 87°·Low 74°·Rain 100%

The models are 11° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
87°
Drizzle
High 87°·Low 77°·Rain 69%
AmericanNOAA GFS
94°
Cloudy
High 94°·Low 77°·Rain 69%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Heavy drizzle
High 82°·Low 75°·Rain 97%

The models are 11° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°90° to 93°±43%54% to 97% chance
Tomorrow±6°88° to 94°±32%64% to 96% chance
Sat±11°87° to 98°±21%79% to 100% chance
Sun±11°82° to 94°±28%69% to 97% chance
Mon±12°81° to 93°±32%44% to 76% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 100%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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