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CheckWeather USJacksonville
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Jacksonville weather

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Thunderstorm,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 95° in Jacksonville today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 86°, with a 94% chance of rain.

95°75°
86°72°
83°69°
86°69°
87°68°
91°71°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
95°
Thunderstorm
Today 95°·Low 76°·Rain 65%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Light rain
Today 96°·Low 74°·Rain 65%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Thunderstorm
Today 94°·Low 74°·Rain 80%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Jacksonville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Thunderstorm
95° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
86° 72°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
83° 69°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
86° 69°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
87° 68°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
91° 71°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
91° 75°
±8°
Sat
Heavy drizzle
89° 73°
±12°
Sun
Light drizzle
89° 73°
±15°
Mon
Light drizzle
91° 74°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
85° 71°
±12°
Wed
Thunderstorm
85° 68°
±13°
Thu
Thunderstorm
84° 68°
±13°
Fri
Thunderstorm
79° 66°
models agree

Jacksonville, NC is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Jacksonville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Jacksonville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
59°
41°
Feb
62°
43°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
74°
54°
May
79°
61°
Jun
86°
67°
Jul
89°
73°
Aug
87°
71°
Sep
82°
66°
Oct
74°
56°
Nov
66°
49°
Dec
59°
41°

Which forecast is most accurate in Jacksonville?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F98±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F93±2.2 mph1855% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°94° to 96°±15%65% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±2°85° to 87°±61%33% to 94% chance
Mon±1°83° to 84°±12%11% to 23% chance
Tue±4°84° to 88°±42%8% to 50% chance
Wed±3°85° to 88°±32%7% to 39% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Jacksonville

today, local time
Sunrise
06:45
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 45m

Common questions

What's the weather in Jacksonville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Jacksonville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Jacksonville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Jacksonville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Jacksonville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Jacksonville (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Jacksonville?
July is typically the warmest month in Jacksonville, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Jacksonville get?
The coldest month in Jacksonville is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Jacksonville get?
Jacksonville sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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