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Indianapolis weekend weather

This weekend in Indianapolis, IN, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 77° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 97% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Light rain
High 76°·Low 70°·Rain 78%
AmericanNOAA GFS
75°
Thunderstorm
High 75°·Low 67°·Rain 78%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Showers
High 82°·Low 69°·Rain 97%

The models range from 75° to 82°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
79°
Heavy drizzle
High 79°·Low 67°·Rain 49%
AmericanNOAA GFS
71°
Showers
High 71°·Low 67°·Rain 49%
EuropeanECMWF
79°
Light drizzle
High 79°·Low 71°·Rain 41%

The models are 8° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°85° to 91°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°87° to 90°±14%24% to 38% chance
Sat±7°75° to 82°±19%78% to 97% chance
Sun±8°71° to 79°±8%41% to 49% chance
Mon±7°76° to 83°±2%16% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 97%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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