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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Gainesville weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 75° in Gainesville today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 76°, with a 15% chance of rain.

75°56°
76°64°
76°64°
79°62°
79°61°
81°63°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
61°
Clear
Feels 57° · Wind 15 mph · Humidity 83%
AmericanNOAA GFS
59°
Clear
Feels 54° · Wind 12 mph · Humidity 71%
EuropeanECMWF
61°
Mainly clear
Feels 57° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 72%

Latest for Gainesville: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 61° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 59° Clear · European (ECMWF): 61° Mainly clear.

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Gainesville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Gainesville…

Gainesville weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Gainesville swings 44°F across the year, from 89°F highs in June to 45°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 51 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 251 days a year at 77°F or above, 136 of them at 86°F or above, 3 frost nights, and rain on 144 days.

Warmest month
June
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
45°F average low
Wettest month
August
51 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
145,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
251 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
3 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
144 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Gainesville’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Gainesville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Gainesville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Gainesville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
75° 56°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
76° 64°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
76° 64°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
79° 62°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
79° 61°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
81° 63°
±5°
Fri
Mostly clear
79° 63°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
81° 62°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
80° 62°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
81° 62°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
79° 63°
±6°
Wed
Mostly clear
76° 55°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
79° 57°
models agree

Gainesville, Florida (FL) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 45°F), with roughly 51 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Gainesville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Gainesville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
66°
45°
Feb
69°
48°
Mar
73°
53°
Apr
80°
57°
May
85°
64°
Jun
89°
70°
Jul
89°
72°
Aug
89°
72°
Sep
86°
69°
Oct
80°
62°
Nov
71°
53°
Dec
67°
49°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Gainesville's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.9°F

Around Gainesville, 2015-2024 averaged 1.9°F warmer than 1995-2004. 9 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2023.

1995: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average1996: −2.0°F vs the 30-year average1997: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average1998: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2000: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2001: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average2002: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2003: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2005: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2008: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2009: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2010: −2.7°F vs the 30-year average2011: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2012: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2013: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2014: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2015: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2016: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2018: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2019: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.8°F vs the 30-year average2021: +0.7°F vs the 30-year average2022: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2023: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

8 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −7 vs the 30-year average1996: −10 vs the 30-year average1997: −12 vs the 30-year average1998: +23 vs the 30-year average1999: −10 vs the 30-year average2000: +12 vs the 30-year average2001: −8 vs the 30-year average2002: +3 vs the 30-year average2003: −15 vs the 30-year average2004: −4 vs the 30-year average2005: −15 vs the 30-year average2006: +17 vs the 30-year average2007: +0 vs the 30-year average2008: −5 vs the 30-year average2009: −13 vs the 30-year average2010: +0 vs the 30-year average2011: +18 vs the 30-year average2012: −12 vs the 30-year average2013: −16 vs the 30-year average2014: −5 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: +16 vs the 30-year average2017: −4 vs the 30-year average2018: −16 vs the 30-year average2019: +4 vs the 30-year average2020: +3 vs the 30-year average2021: −8 vs the 30-year average2022: +20 vs the 30-year average2023: −2 vs the 30-year average2024: +39 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

4 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +4 vs the 30-year average1996: +11 vs the 30-year average1997: −3 vs the 30-year average1998: −3 vs the 30-year average1999: +1 vs the 30-year average2000: +4 vs the 30-year average2001: +2 vs the 30-year average2002: −1 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: −0 vs the 30-year average2005: −1 vs the 30-year average2006: −5 vs the 30-year average2007: −2 vs the 30-year average2008: +2 vs the 30-year average2009: +4 vs the 30-year average2010: +23 vs the 30-year average2011: −1 vs the 30-year average2012: −1 vs the 30-year average2013: −3 vs the 30-year average2014: −1 vs the 30-year average2015: −2 vs the 30-year average2016: −3 vs the 30-year average2017: −2 vs the 30-year average2018: +5 vs the 30-year average2019: −6 vs the 30-year average2020: −1 vs the 30-year average2021: −7 vs the 30-year average2022: +1 vs the 30-year average2023: −6 vs the 30-year average2024: −4 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−4%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +5% vs the 30-year average1997: +1% vs the 30-year average1998: +5% vs the 30-year average1999: +1% vs the 30-year average2000: +5% vs the 30-year average2001: +1% vs the 30-year average2002: −3% vs the 30-year average2003: −3% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: +5% vs the 30-year average2009: −3% vs the 30-year average2010: −3% vs the 30-year average2011: −3% vs the 30-year average2012: +1% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: −7% vs the 30-year average2015: −7% vs the 30-year average2016: −3% vs the 30-year average2017: −3% vs the 30-year average2018: −3% vs the 30-year average2019: −3% vs the 30-year average2020: +5% vs the 30-year average2021: −3% vs the 30-year average2022: −3% vs the 30-year average2023: +1% vs the 30-year average2024: +1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.9°F−7+4+5%
1996−2.0°F−10+11+5%
1997−0.4°F−12−3+1%
1998+0.3°F+23−3+5%
1999−0.2°F−10+1+1%
2000−0.6°F+12+4+5%
2001−0.4°F−8+2+1%
2002±0.0°F+3−1−3%
2003−1.5°F−15+4−3%
2004−0.6°F−4−0+1%
2005−1.1°F−15−1+1%
2006+0.5°F+17−5+1%
2007+0.3°F+0−2+1%
2008−1.3°F−5+2+5%
2009−0.9°F−13+4−3%
2010−2.7°F+0+23−3%
2011+0.3°F+18−1−3%
2012+0.1°F−12−1+1%
2013−0.2°F−16−3+1%
2014−1.5°F−5−1−7%
2015+1.6°F+2−2−7%
2016+0.9°F+16−3−3%
2017+1.2°F−4−2−3%
2018−0.2°F−16+5−3%
2019+1.2°F+4−6−3%
2020+1.8°F+3−1+5%
2021+0.7°F−8−7−3%
2022+1.4°F+20+1−3%
2023+2.1°F−2−6+1%
2024+2.1°F+39−4+1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Gainesville, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Gainesville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F94±1.8 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°74° to 77°±14%8% to 22% chance
Tomorrow±2°75° to 77°±2%13% to 15% chance
Mon±3°75° to 78°±5%8% to 13% chance
Tue±3°78° to 80°±23%5% to 28% chance
Wed±2°78° to 80°±15%7% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Gainesville

today, local time
Sunrise
07:37
Sunset
18:49
Daylight
11h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Gainesville today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 75° in Gainesville today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 76°, with a 15% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Gainesville today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Gainesville on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 15% (NWS 15%, American 15%, European 13%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 22%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Gainesville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Gainesville (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Gainesville?
June is typically the warmest month in Gainesville, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Gainesville get?
The coldest month in Gainesville is January, when overnight lows average about 45°F.
How much rain does Gainesville get?
Gainesville sees roughly 51 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Gainesville getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Gainesville, 2015-2024 averaged 1.9°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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