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Forest Lake weather

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Forest Lake weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Forest Lake and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Forest Lake hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Forest Lake 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Forest Lake is a small town of about 20,000 people in Minnesota (MN), sitting at 45.3°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Forest Lake with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Wyoming, Hugo, Lino Lakes.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

How Forest Lake's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.9°F

Around Forest Lake, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.9°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −2.7°F vs the 30-year average1996: −5.2°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.8°F vs the 30-year average1998: +2.9°F vs the 30-year average1999: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2002: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2003: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2004: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2005: +2.7°F vs the 30-year average2006: +3.6°F vs the 30-year average2007: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2008: −2.3°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2010: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2011: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2012: +3.5°F vs the 30-year average2013: −2.5°F vs the 30-year average2014: −4.3°F vs the 30-year average2015: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2017: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2018: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average2019: −3.0°F vs the 30-year average2020: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2021: +2.2°F vs the 30-year average2022: −1.8°F vs the 30-year average2023: +2.0°F vs the 30-year average2024: +3.5°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 86°F

1 fewer day a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −4 vs the 30-year average1996: −7 vs the 30-year average1997: −9 vs the 30-year average1998: −7 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: +3 vs the 30-year average2001: +4 vs the 30-year average2002: +0 vs the 30-year average2003: +2 vs the 30-year average2004: −8 vs the 30-year average2005: +19 vs the 30-year average2006: +27 vs the 30-year average2007: +34 vs the 30-year average2008: −7 vs the 30-year average2009: −8 vs the 30-year average2010: −4 vs the 30-year average2011: −5 vs the 30-year average2012: +15 vs the 30-year average2013: +3 vs the 30-year average2014: −15 vs the 30-year average2015: −12 vs the 30-year average2016: −6 vs the 30-year average2017: −12 vs the 30-year average2018: −2 vs the 30-year average2019: −14 vs the 30-year average2020: −7 vs the 30-year average2021: +13 vs the 30-year average2022: +1 vs the 30-year average2023: +6 vs the 30-year average2024: −12 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

6 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +11 vs the 30-year average1996: +18 vs the 30-year average1997: +20 vs the 30-year average1998: −17 vs the 30-year average1999: −4 vs the 30-year average2000: −2 vs the 30-year average2001: −12 vs the 30-year average2002: +27 vs the 30-year average2003: +1 vs the 30-year average2004: −2 vs the 30-year average2005: −7 vs the 30-year average2006: +4 vs the 30-year average2007: −11 vs the 30-year average2008: +1 vs the 30-year average2009: −2 vs the 30-year average2010: −24 vs the 30-year average2011: +2 vs the 30-year average2012: −14 vs the 30-year average2013: +19 vs the 30-year average2014: +10 vs the 30-year average2015: −22 vs the 30-year average2016: −21 vs the 30-year average2017: −10 vs the 30-year average2018: +24 vs the 30-year average2019: +10 vs the 30-year average2020: +19 vs the 30-year average2021: −12 vs the 30-year average2022: +9 vs the 30-year average2023: −1 vs the 30-year average2024: −19 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−3%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +1% vs the 30-year average1997: −1% vs the 30-year average1998: −3% vs the 30-year average1999: +5% vs the 30-year average2000: +1% vs the 30-year average2001: +1% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: +3% vs the 30-year average2004: +3% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: +3% vs the 30-year average2007: +7% vs the 30-year average2008: +3% vs the 30-year average2009: −1% vs the 30-year average2010: −3% vs the 30-year average2011: −3% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: +3% vs the 30-year average2015: +3% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: −1% vs the 30-year average2018: −6% vs the 30-year average2019: −3% vs the 30-year average2020: −3% vs the 30-year average2021: −6% vs the 30-year average2022: +5% vs the 30-year average2023: −6% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >86°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−2.7°F−4+11+1%
1996−5.2°F−7+18+1%
1997−1.8°F−9+20−1%
1998+2.9°F−7−17−3%
1999+1.5°F−1−4+5%
2000+0.2°F+3−2+1%
2001+0.4°F+4−12+1%
2002±0.0°F+0+27+1%
2003−0.3°F+2+1+3%
2004±0.0°F−8−2+3%
2005+2.7°F+19−7+1%
2006+3.6°F+27+4+3%
2007+1.7°F+34−11+7%
2008−2.3°F−7+1+3%
2009−1.4°F−8−2−1%
2010+0.2°F−4−24−3%
2011−0.7°F−5+2−3%
2012+3.5°F+15−14−1%
2013−2.5°F+3+19+1%
2014−4.3°F−15+10+3%
2015+1.3°F−12−22+3%
2016+1.7°F−6−21−1%
2017−0.1°F−12−10−1%
2018−1.2°F−2+24−6%
2019−3.0°F−14+10−3%
2020−0.5°F−7+19−3%
2021+2.2°F+13−12−6%
2022−1.8°F+1+9+5%
2023+2.0°F+6−1−6%
2024+3.5°F−12−19−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Forest Lake, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F97±1.1 mph9396% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±2.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Forest Lake today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Forest Lake today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Forest Lake today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Forest Lake and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Forest Lake?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Forest Lake forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
Is Forest Lake getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Forest Lake, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.9°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

WyomingHugoLino LakesEast BethelHam LakeWhite Bear LakeMahtomediBlaine

More US weather

Which forecast is most accurate in United States?US rain radarNWS vs American vs European: models comparedHow we measure forecast accuracyHow accurate is a 7-day forecast?Minnesota weather todayAll US citiesHoliday weather abroadEmbed Forest Lake on your siteThe national forecast models, explained: NBM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS