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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Folsom weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Folsom today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 83°, with a 0% chance of rain.

82°56°
83°59°
89°58°
94°64°
100°72°
104°75°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±8°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
83°
Mostly clear
Today 83°·Low 56°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 55°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
81°
Mostly clear
Today 81°·Low 58°·Rain 0%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Folsom and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
82° 56°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
83° 59°
models agree
Mon
Clear
89° 58°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
94° 64°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
100° 72°
±8°
Thu
Mostly clear
104° 75°
±7°
Fri
Mostly clear
95° 69°
±5°
Sat
Mostly clear
88° 64°
±7°
Sun
Mostly clear
86° 60°
±9°
Mon
Clear
88° 61°
±11°
Tue
Mostly clear
89° 62°
±11°
Wed
Cloudy
95° 65°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
94° 67°
±5°
Fri
Clear
93° 64°
models agree

Folsom, CA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 98°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 40°F), with roughly 38 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Folsom right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Folsom climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
55°
42°
Feb
56°
40°
Mar
58°
43°
Apr
68°
47°
May
78°
53°
Jun
88°
60°
Jul
98°
66°
Aug
94°
65°
Sep
87°
60°
Oct
79°
55°
Nov
62°
45°
Dec
57°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Folsom?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
80±2.0°F98±0.5 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #2
51±4.9°F97±0.8 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°81° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree83° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°89° to 90°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°93° to 96°models agree2% to 2% chance
Wed±8°96° to 105°±1%2% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Folsom

today, local time
Sunrise
06:37
Sunset
19:28
Daylight
12h 51m

Common questions

What's the weather in Folsom today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Folsom today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Folsom today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Folsom and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Folsom?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Folsom (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Folsom?
July is typically the warmest month in Folsom, with average highs around 98°F.
How cold does Folsom get?
The coldest month in Folsom is February, when overnight lows average about 40°F.
How much rain does Folsom get?
Folsom sees roughly 38 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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