Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 5°F
Eugene weather
Loading live data…
Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model put Eugene's high today between 59° and 64°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 64°, with a 72% chance of rain.
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories
Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Eugene…
Eugene weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather
Eugene swings 51°F across the year, from 84°F highs in July to 33°F lows in December, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 50 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 84 days a year at 77°F or above, 34 of them at 86°F or above, 50 frost nights, and rain on 136 days.
Warmest month
July
84°F average high
Coldest month
December
33°F average low
Wettest month
December
50 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
177,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
96/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
84 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
50 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
136 days
a year with 0.04 in or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Eugene’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Eugene and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
Eugene hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
Loading the three models…
Eugene 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
61°35°
±5°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
64°41°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
59°45°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
59°46°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
57°44°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
55°40°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
56°36°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
55°34°
±8°
Sun
Mostly clear
59°35°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
60°39°
±6°
Tue
Mostly clear
62°41°
±14°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
60°42°
±10°
Thu
Light drizzle
59°50°
±4°
Eugene, Oregon (OR) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 33°F), with roughly 50 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Eugene right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
47°
34°
Feb
51°
34°
Mar
55°
37°
Apr
58°
40°
May
66°
44°
Jun
75°
49°
Jul
84°
53°
Aug
83°
55°
Sep
74°
51°
Oct
62°
43°
Nov
52°
38°
Dec
45°
33°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Eugene's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.8°F
Around Eugene, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°F warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2015.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 86°F
6 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Frost nights
7 more nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >86°F vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
+0.7°F
−6
−9
+4%
1996
−0.1°F
+4
−15
+4%
1997
−0.1°F
−7
+5
−2%
1998
−0.4°F
−6
−14
+4%
1999
−1.1°F
−5
−3
+4%
2000
−0.8°F
−8
−7
−2%
2001
−0.6°F
−3
+3
−2%
2002
−0.2°F
+2
+0
−2%
2003
+1.0°F
+8
−13
−2%
2004
+0.8°F
+1
−17
−2%
2005
+0.3°F
−5
+1
−2%
2006
−0.2°F
+7
−6
+4%
2007
−1.0°F
−4
+15
−2%
2008
−1.7°F
−0
+21
−2%
2009
−0.8°F
+4
+18
−2%
2010
−1.0°F
−5
−13
+4%
2011
−2.0°F
−2
+21
−2%
2012
−1.1°F
−6
+11
+4%
2013
−1.0°F
−9
+12
−8%
2014
+2.1°F
+9
−13
+4%
2015
+2.3°F
+5
−18
−2%
2016
+1.0°F
+4
−10
+4%
2017
+0.1°F
+5
+5
+4%
2018
+0.8°F
+5
−4
−2%
2019
−0.1°F
−3
+10
−8%
2020
+0.3°F
+1
+8
−2%
2021
+0.7°F
+11
+0
+4%
2022
+0.3°F
+2
+6
−8%
2023
+0.5°F
+6
+21
−2%
2024
+1.0°F
+8
−18
+4%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Eugene, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Eugene?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F
96±1.1 mph
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
86
/100rank #2
77±2.3°F
97±0.9 mph
8994% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
Loading ratings…
AmericanNOAA GFS
Loading ratings…
EuropeanECMWF
Loading ratings…
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±5°59° to 64°
±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow
±6°60° to 66°
±39%33% to 72% chance
Mon
±7°56° to 63°
±2%74% to 76% chance
Tue
±3°58° to 61°
±19%36% to 55% chance
Wed
±2°56° to 57°
±16%16% to 32% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Eugene
today, local time
Sunrise
07:38
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
10h 35m
Common questions
What's the weather in Eugene today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model put Eugene's high today between 59° and 64°, a 5° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 64°, with a 72% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Eugene today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Eugene on Sunday, October 25: NWS 72%, American 72%, European 33%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 1%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Eugene?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Eugene (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Eugene?
July is typically the warmest month in Eugene, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Eugene get?
The coldest month in Eugene is December, when overnight lows average about 33°F.
How much rain does Eugene get?
Eugene sees roughly 50 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Eugene getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Eugene, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°F warmer than 1995-2004.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.
