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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Elkhart weather

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Thunderstorm,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Elkhart today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 77°, with a 0% chance of rain.

82°70°
77°60°
79°57°
83°60°
79°70°
77°63°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±11°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Thunderstorm
Today 80°·Low 70°·Rain 52%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
Today 83°·Low 71°·Rain 52%
EuropeanECMWF
82°
Thunderstorm
Today 82°·Low 70°·Rain 100%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Elkhart and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Thunderstorm
82° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
77° 60°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
79° 57°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
83° 60°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
79° 70°
±11°
Thu
Partly cloudy
77° 63°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
80° 57°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
82° 63°
±4°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
80° 64°
±6°
Mon
Drizzle
75° 61°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
70° 54°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
68° 50°
±7°
Thu
Cloudy
72° 51°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
74° 52°
±5°

Elkhart, IN is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 24°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Elkhart right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Elkhart climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
24°
Feb
45°
27°
Mar
49°
31°
Apr
60°
41°
May
73°
51°
Jun
81°
61°
Jul
82°
63°
Aug
81°
63°
Sep
77°
58°
Oct
64°
47°
Nov
50°
37°
Dec
41°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Elkhart?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F97±0.9 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F95±1.5 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°80° to 83°±48%52% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±4°76° to 79°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°77° to 80°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°82° to 84°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±11°73° to 84°±28%31% to 59% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Elkhart

today, local time
Sunrise
07:14
Sunset
20:10
Daylight
12h 56m

Common questions

What's the weather in Elkhart today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Elkhart today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Elkhart today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Elkhart and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Elkhart?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Elkhart (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Elkhart?
July is typically the warmest month in Elkhart, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Elkhart get?
The coldest month in Elkhart is January, when overnight lows average about 24°F.
How much rain does Elkhart get?
Elkhart sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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