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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Duluth weather

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Heavy drizzle,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 70° in Duluth today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 55°, with a 18% chance of rain.

70°50°
55°40°
47°39°
47°41°
55°46°
56°45°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
59°
Mainly clear
Feels 54° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 72%
AmericanNOAA GFS
56°
Clear
Feels 53° · Wind 1 mph · Humidity 61%
EuropeanECMWF
59°
Mainly clear
Feels 56° · Wind 9 mph · Humidity 79%

Latest for Duluth: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 59° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 56° Clear · European (ECMWF): 59° Mainly clear.

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Duluth weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Duluth…

Duluth weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Duluth swings 69°F across the year, from 77°F highs in July to 8°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 33 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 47 days a year at 77°F or above, 7 of them at 86°F or above, 152 frost nights, and rain on 113 days.

Warmest month
July
77°F average high
Coldest month
January
8°F average low
Wettest month
June
33 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
86,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
47 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
152 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
113 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Duluth’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Duluth and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Duluth hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Duluth 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
70° 50°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
55° 40°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
47° 39°
±5°
Tue
Drizzle
47° 41°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
55° 46°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
56° 45°
±7°
Fri
Partly cloudy
52° 45°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
60° 46°
±18°
Sun
Light rain
56° 43°
±10°
Mon
Mostly clear
51° 39°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
44° 36°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
50° 37°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
50° 37°
models agree

Duluth, Minnesota (MN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 77°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 8°F), with roughly 33 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Duluth right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Duluth climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
19°
8°
Feb
26°
10°
Mar
37°
23°
Apr
49°
34°
May
61°
44°
Jun
71°
54°
Jul
77°
60°
Aug
75°
60°
Sep
67°
52°
Oct
52°
40°
Nov
37°
26°
Dec
24°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Duluth's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.4°F

Around Duluth, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +1.4°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: −2.8°F vs the 30-year average1996: −5.5°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average1998: +3.2°F vs the 30-year average1999: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2000: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2001: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2003: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2005: +2.3°F vs the 30-year average2006: +4.1°F vs the 30-year average2007: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2008: −1.9°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2010: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2011: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2012: +3.7°F vs the 30-year average2013: −2.4°F vs the 30-year average2014: −4.6°F vs the 30-year average2015: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2018: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2019: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average2020: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2021: +3.0°F vs the 30-year average2022: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2024: +3.7°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 77°F

7 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −1 vs the 30-year average1996: −20 vs the 30-year average1997: −12 vs the 30-year average1998: +10 vs the 30-year average1999: −13 vs the 30-year average2000: −6 vs the 30-year average2001: −6 vs the 30-year average2002: +1 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: −6 vs the 30-year average2005: +16 vs the 30-year average2006: +32 vs the 30-year average2007: +24 vs the 30-year average2008: −16 vs the 30-year average2009: −16 vs the 30-year average2010: +9 vs the 30-year average2011: +7 vs the 30-year average2012: +14 vs the 30-year average2013: −9 vs the 30-year average2014: −26 vs the 30-year average2015: +1 vs the 30-year average2016: −7 vs the 30-year average2017: −10 vs the 30-year average2018: +7 vs the 30-year average2019: −6 vs the 30-year average2020: +8 vs the 30-year average2021: +24 vs the 30-year average2022: −3 vs the 30-year average2023: −3 vs the 30-year average2024: +8 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

9 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +14 vs the 30-year average1996: +25 vs the 30-year average1997: +20 vs the 30-year average1998: −18 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: −0 vs the 30-year average2001: −3 vs the 30-year average2002: +32 vs the 30-year average2003: +8 vs the 30-year average2004: −3 vs the 30-year average2005: −14 vs the 30-year average2006: −0 vs the 30-year average2007: −15 vs the 30-year average2008: −4 vs the 30-year average2009: −3 vs the 30-year average2010: −26 vs the 30-year average2011: −1 vs the 30-year average2012: −8 vs the 30-year average2013: +15 vs the 30-year average2014: +12 vs the 30-year average2015: −17 vs the 30-year average2016: −17 vs the 30-year average2017: −1 vs the 30-year average2018: +16 vs the 30-year average2019: +5 vs the 30-year average2020: +19 vs the 30-year average2021: −7 vs the 30-year average2022: +8 vs the 30-year average2023: −3 vs the 30-year average2024: −21 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: −1% vs the 30-year average1997: −4% vs the 30-year average1998: −1% vs the 30-year average1999: −1% vs the 30-year average2000: −1% vs the 30-year average2001: −4% vs the 30-year average2002: −1% vs the 30-year average2003: +1% vs the 30-year average2004: +3% vs the 30-year average2005: −1% vs the 30-year average2006: −1% vs the 30-year average2007: +5% vs the 30-year average2008: +3% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: −1% vs the 30-year average2011: −1% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: −1% vs the 30-year average2014: +3% vs the 30-year average2015: +1% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: +1% vs the 30-year average2018: −1% vs the 30-year average2019: +1% vs the 30-year average2020: −1% vs the 30-year average2021: −1% vs the 30-year average2022: +8% vs the 30-year average2023: −1% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >77°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−2.8°F−1+14+1%
1996−5.5°F−20+25−1%
1997−1.7°F−12+20−4%
1998+3.2°F+10−18−1%
1999+0.5°F−13−1−1%
2000−0.3°F−6−0−1%
2001+0.1°F−6−3−4%
2002−0.8°F+1+32−1%
2003−1.2°F+4+8+1%
2004−0.1°F−6−3+3%
2005+2.3°F+16−14−1%
2006+4.1°F+32−0−1%
2007+1.2°F+24−15+5%
2008−1.9°F−16−4+3%
2009−1.0°F−16−3+1%
2010+1.5°F+9−26−1%
2011+0.3°F+7−1−1%
2012+3.7°F+14−8−1%
2013−2.4°F−9+15−1%
2014−4.6°F−26+12+3%
2015+0.8°F+1−17+1%
2016+1.4°F−7−17−1%
2017+0.1°F−10−1+1%
2018−1.0°F+7+16−1%
2019−2.1°F−6+5+1%
2020+0.3°F+8+19−1%
2021+3.0°F+24−7−1%
2022−2.1°F−3+8+8%
2023+1.4°F−3−3−1%
2024+3.7°F+8−21−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Duluth, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Duluth?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F98±0.7 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F92±2.5 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°69° to 72°±38%39% to 77% chance
Tomorrow±3°54° to 57°±17%1% to 18% chance
Mon±5°45° to 50°±18%11% to 29% chance
Tue±3°46° to 49°±20%54% to 74% chance
Wed±2°55° to 57°±10%47% to 57% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Duluth

today, local time
Sunrise
07:39
Sunset
18:05
Daylight
10h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Duluth today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 70° in Duluth today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 55°, with a 18% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Duluth today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Duluth on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 18% (NWS 1%, American 1%, European 18%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 77%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Duluth?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Duluth (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Duluth?
July is typically the warmest month in Duluth, with average highs around 77°F.
How cold does Duluth get?
The coldest month in Duluth is January, when overnight lows average about 8°F.
How much rain does Duluth get?
Duluth sees roughly 33 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Duluth getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Duluth, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 1.4°F, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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More US weather

Which forecast is most accurate in United States?US rain radarNWS vs American vs European: models comparedHow we measure forecast accuracyHow accurate is a 7-day forecast?Minnesota weather todayAll US citiesHoliday weather abroadEmbed Duluth on your siteThe national forecast models, explained: NBM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS