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CheckWeather US›Delaware›Dover
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Dover weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 60° in Dover today. Tomorrow: clear, around 63°, with a 0% chance of rain.

60°42°
63°44°
67°43°
63°50°
60°47°
65°48°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
60°
Mostly clear
Today 60°·Low 41°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
60°
Mostly clear
Today 60°·Low 41°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
60°
Partly cloudy
Today 60°·Low 45°·Rain 0%
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Dover weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Dover…

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Dover and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dover hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dover 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
60° 42°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
63° 44°
models agree
Mon
Clear
67° 43°
models agree
Tue
Clear
63° 50°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
60° 47°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
65° 48°
±10°
Fri
Clear
68° 50°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
66° 51°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
63° 50°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
65° 55°
±17°
Tue
Light drizzle
63° 49°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
54° 42°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
58° 41°
models agree

Dover is a small town of about 39,000 people in Delaware (DE), sitting at 39.2°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Dover with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Smyrna, Milford, Middletown.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

How Dover's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+2.0°F

Around Dover, 2015-2024 averaged 2.0°F warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average1996: −3.2°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.6°F vs the 30-year average1998: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average1999: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2000: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2001: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average2002: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2003: −2.3°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2005: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2006: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2007: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2008: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2010: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2011: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2012: +2.0°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2014: −2.0°F vs the 30-year average2015: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2016: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2019: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2021: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.8°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.3°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 86°F

18 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +9 vs the 30-year average1996: −39 vs the 30-year average1997: −2 vs the 30-year average1998: +7 vs the 30-year average1999: +16 vs the 30-year average2000: −34 vs the 30-year average2001: −18 vs the 30-year average2002: +20 vs the 30-year average2003: −35 vs the 30-year average2004: −29 vs the 30-year average2005: +9 vs the 30-year average2006: +3 vs the 30-year average2007: +20 vs the 30-year average2008: +6 vs the 30-year average2009: −23 vs the 30-year average2010: +26 vs the 30-year average2011: +14 vs the 30-year average2012: +17 vs the 30-year average2013: −25 vs the 30-year average2014: −22 vs the 30-year average2015: +3 vs the 30-year average2016: +15 vs the 30-year average2017: −9 vs the 30-year average2018: −6 vs the 30-year average2019: +24 vs the 30-year average2020: +8 vs the 30-year average2021: +14 vs the 30-year average2022: +27 vs the 30-year average2023: −7 vs the 30-year average2024: +13 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

10 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +17 vs the 30-year average1996: +12 vs the 30-year average1997: +8 vs the 30-year average1998: −23 vs the 30-year average1999: −5 vs the 30-year average2000: +12 vs the 30-year average2001: −3 vs the 30-year average2002: −2 vs the 30-year average2003: +11 vs the 30-year average2004: +6 vs the 30-year average2005: +10 vs the 30-year average2006: −20 vs the 30-year average2007: +8 vs the 30-year average2008: +1 vs the 30-year average2009: +2 vs the 30-year average2010: +13 vs the 30-year average2011: +1 vs the 30-year average2012: −18 vs the 30-year average2013: +13 vs the 30-year average2014: +21 vs the 30-year average2015: +0 vs the 30-year average2016: −7 vs the 30-year average2017: −13 vs the 30-year average2018: +11 vs the 30-year average2019: +3 vs the 30-year average2020: −23 vs the 30-year average2021: +2 vs the 30-year average2022: +5 vs the 30-year average2023: −29 vs the 30-year average2024: −16 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−4%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004

1995: +2% vs the 30-year average1996: +4% vs the 30-year average1997: +6% vs the 30-year average1998: −0% vs the 30-year average1999: +6% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −3% vs the 30-year average2002: +4% vs the 30-year average2003: +2% vs the 30-year average2004: −0% vs the 30-year average2005: −3% vs the 30-year average2006: −0% vs the 30-year average2007: −0% vs the 30-year average2008: −0% vs the 30-year average2009: −0% vs the 30-year average2010: +2% vs the 30-year average2011: −3% vs the 30-year average2012: −5% vs the 30-year average2013: −0% vs the 30-year average2014: −0% vs the 30-year average2015: −3% vs the 30-year average2016: −0% vs the 30-year average2017: −0% vs the 30-year average2018: +2% vs the 30-year average2019: −3% vs the 30-year average2020: −0% vs the 30-year average2021: −3% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −5% vs the 30-year average2024: −5% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >86°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.3°F+9+17+2%
1996−3.2°F−39+12+4%
1997−1.6°F−2+8+6%
1998+1.1°F+7−23−0%
1999±0.0°F+16−5+6%
2000−2.2°F−34+12+4%
2001−0.4°F−18−3−3%
2002+1.1°F+20−2+4%
2003−2.3°F−35+11+2%
2004−0.7°F−29+6−0%
2005−0.5°F+9+10−3%
2006+1.1°F+3−20−0%
2007+0.4°F+20+8−0%
2008±0.0°F+6+1−0%
2009−1.4°F−23+2−0%
2010±0.0°F+26+13+2%
2011+0.9°F+14+1−3%
2012+2.0°F+17−18−5%
2013−1.3°F−25+13−0%
2014−2.0°F−22+21−0%
2015±0.0°F+3+0−3%
2016+0.5°F+15−7−0%
2017+0.9°F−9−13−0%
2018+0.2°F−6+11+2%
2019+1.1°F+24+3−3%
2020+1.4°F+8−23−0%
2021+1.4°F+14+2−3%
2022+0.9°F+27+5+2%
2023+1.8°F−7−29−5%
2024+2.3°F+13−16−5%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Dover, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Dover?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F98±0.7 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F96±1.3 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°60° to 60°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°62° to 64°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°66° to 68°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°62° to 64°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°58° to 61°±1%1% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dover

today, local time
Sunrise
07:21
Sunset
18:10
Daylight
10h 49m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dover today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 60° in Dover today. Tomorrow: clear, around 63°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Dover today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Dover on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dover?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dover (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
Is Dover getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Dover, 2015-2024 averaged 2.0°F warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

SmyrnaMilfordMiddletownBridgetonChestertownMillvilleVillasGlasgow

More US weather

Which forecast is most accurate in United States?US rain radarNWS vs American vs European: models comparedHow we measure forecast accuracyHow accurate is a 7-day forecast?Delaware weather todayAll US citiesHoliday weather abroadEmbed Dover on your siteThe national forecast models, explained: NBM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS