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Denton weekend weather

This weekend in Denton, TX, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 98° across the weekend. Agreement is high — unusually solid for this far out.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
97°
Mostly clear
High 97°·Low 82°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
100°
Light drizzle
High 100°·Low 78°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
100°
Cloudy
High 100°·Low 84°·Rain 18%

All 3 models land within 3° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
95°
Clear
High 95°·Low 75°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Clear
High 99°·Low 70°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Clear
High 97°·Low 75°·Rain 0%

All 3 models land within 4° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°102° to 103°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tomorrow±3°104° to 107°±42%3% to 45% chance
Sat±3°97° to 100°±15%3% to 18% chance
Sun±4°95° to 99°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°97° to 100°±1%1% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
The models are not currently showing a high weekend rain risk, and they broadly agree with each other.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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