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CheckWeather USDecatur
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Decatur weather

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Drizzle,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 96° in Decatur today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 85°, with a 2% chance of rain.

96°75°
85°69°
84°62°
94°63°
93°74°
85°67°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±13°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Drizzle
Today 96°·Low 74°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Mostly clear
Today 96°·Low 75°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
95°
Thunderstorm
Today 95°·Low 75°·Rain 76%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Decatur and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
96° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
85° 69°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
84° 62°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
94° 63°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
93° 74°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
85° 67°
±13°
Fri
Cloudy
87° 62°
±19°
Sat
Mostly clear
89° 66°
±8°
Sun
Drizzle
89° 67°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
81° 62°
±15°
Tue
Mostly clear
76° 56°
±11°
Wed
Clear
74° 52°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
77° 53°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
73° 57°
±9°

Decatur, IL is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 25°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Decatur right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Decatur climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
38°
25°
Feb
50°
30°
Mar
54°
35°
Apr
65°
45°
May
76°
56°
Jun
84°
65°
Jul
84°
67°
Aug
83°
66°
Sep
78°
61°
Oct
67°
50°
Nov
54°
39°
Dec
44°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Decatur?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F96±1.2 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
70
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F95±1.7 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°95° to 96°±72%4% to 76% chance
Tomorrow±1°85° to 85°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°83° to 85°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±6°91° to 97°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°91° to 94°±7%29% to 36% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Decatur

today, local time
Sunrise
06:27
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Decatur today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Decatur today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Decatur today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Decatur and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Decatur?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Decatur (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 70. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Decatur?
June is typically the warmest month in Decatur, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Decatur get?
The coldest month in Decatur is January, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Decatur get?
Decatur sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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