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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Broken Arrow weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 100° in Broken Arrow today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 101°, with a 20% chance of rain.

100°77°
101°79°
100°79°
102°79°
103°79°
92°76°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±9°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
100°
Mostly clear
Today 100°·Low 77°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
102°
Mostly clear
Today 102°·Low 76°·Rain 2%
EuropeanECMWF
99°
Mostly clear
Today 99°·Low 76°·Rain 2%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Broken Arrow and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
100° 77°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
101° 79°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
100° 79°
models agree
Tue
Clear
102° 79°
±8°
Wed
Mostly clear
103° 79°
±9°
Thu
Drizzle
92° 76°
±6°
Fri
Drizzle
95° 73°
±9°
Sat
Clear
101° 79°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
98° 74°
±13°
Mon
Light drizzle
88° 66°
±13°
Tue
Light drizzle
84° 64°
±7°
Wed
Clear
84° 61°
±13°
Thu
Clear
87° 61°
±10°
Fri
Partly cloudy
90° 64°
models agree

Broken Arrow, OK is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 93°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 30°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Broken Arrow right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Broken Arrow climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
47°
30°
Feb
58°
38°
Mar
64°
44°
Apr
72°
52°
May
80°
62°
Jun
90°
71°
Jul
92°
74°
Aug
93°
75°
Sep
86°
67°
Oct
76°
57°
Nov
63°
45°
Dec
53°
38°

Which forecast is most accurate in Broken Arrow?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
82±1.8°F97±1.0 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.6 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°99° to 102°models agree2% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±4°100° to 103°±16%4% to 20% chance
Mon±2°99° to 101°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tue±8°99° to 107°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±9°100° to 109°±9%3% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Broken Arrow

today, local time
Sunrise
06:58
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
12h 47m

Common questions

What's the weather in Broken Arrow today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Broken Arrow today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Broken Arrow today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Broken Arrow and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Broken Arrow?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Broken Arrow (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Broken Arrow?
August is typically the warmest month in Broken Arrow, with average highs around 93°F.
How cold does Broken Arrow get?
The coldest month in Broken Arrow is January, when overnight lows average about 30°F.
How much rain does Broken Arrow get?
Broken Arrow sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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