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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Baytown weather

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Thunderstorm,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 88° in Baytown today. Tomorrow looks showers around 88°, with a 92% chance of rain.

88°78°
88°78°
90°78°
90°79°
88°80°
90°79°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
87°
Thunderstorm
Today 87°·Low 79°·Rain 41%
AmericanNOAA GFS
87°
Heavy showers
Today 87°·Low 79°·Rain 41%
EuropeanECMWF
88°
Thunderstorm
Today 88°·Low 77°·Rain 84%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Baytown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Thunderstorm
88° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
88° 78°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
90° 78°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
90° 79°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
88° 80°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
90° 79°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
91° 79°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
91° 80°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
90° 81°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
88° 81°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
90° 79°
±6°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
88° 74°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
89° 72°
models agree
Fri
Clear
88° 72°
models agree

Baytown, TX is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 94°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 48°F), with roughly 75 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Baytown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Baytown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
63°
48°
Feb
68°
53°
Mar
73°
60°
Apr
76°
63°
May
82°
71°
Jun
89°
76°
Jul
90°
77°
Aug
94°
79°
Sep
89°
74°
Oct
81°
66°
Nov
72°
58°
Dec
66°
52°

Which forecast is most accurate in Baytown?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F98±0.6 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F93±2.2 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°87° to 88°±43%41% to 84% chance
Tomorrow±2°87° to 89°±74%18% to 92% chance
Mon±2°89° to 91°±26%12% to 38% chance
Tue±2°88° to 91°±48%13% to 61% chance
Wed±1°88° to 89°±38%29% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Baytown

today, local time
Sunrise
06:59
Sunset
19:37
Daylight
12h 38m

Common questions

What's the weather in Baytown today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Baytown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Baytown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Baytown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Baytown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Baytown (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Baytown?
August is typically the warmest month in Baytown, with average highs around 94°F.
How cold does Baytown get?
The coldest month in Baytown is January, when overnight lows average about 48°F.
How much rain does Baytown get?
Baytown sees roughly 75 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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