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Austin weekend weather

This weekend in Austin, TX, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 101° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 45% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Partly cloudy
High 99°·Low 78°·Rain 18%
AmericanNOAA GFS
107°
Showers
High 107°·Low 79°·Rain 18%
EuropeanECMWF
96°
Cloudy
High 96°·Low 78°·Rain 45%

The models are 11° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Partly cloudy
High 98°·Low 79°·Rain 18%
AmericanNOAA GFS
102°
Cloudy
High 102°·Low 79°·Rain 18%
EuropeanECMWF
101°
Light drizzle
High 101°·Low 78°·Rain 16%

The models range from 98° to 102°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°99° to 101°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±1°100° to 100°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sat±11°96° to 107°±27%18% to 45% chance
Sun±5°98° to 102°±2%16% to 18% chance
Mon±6°100° to 106°±18%2% to 20% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 45%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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