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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Alexandria weather

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Light rain,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 83° in Alexandria today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 83°, with a 9% chance of rain.

83°72°
83°65°
82°64°
86°64°
90°66°
93°73°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
76°
Partly cloudy
Feels 80° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 70%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Overcast
Feels 79° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 67%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Clear
Feels 77° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 66%

Latest for Alexandria: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 76° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 76° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 74° Clear.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Alexandria and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
83° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
83° 65°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
82° 64°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
86° 64°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
90° 66°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
93° 73°
±10°
Fri
Light drizzle
86° 70°
±11°
Sat
Mostly clear
87° 68°
±10°
Sun
Mostly clear
90° 70°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
91° 72°
±17°
Tue
Drizzle
84° 68°
±25°
Wed
Light drizzle
77° 65°
±8°
Thu
Light drizzle
76° 64°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
73° 61°
±13°

Alexandria, VA is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 33°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Alexandria right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Alexandria climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
48°
33°
Feb
52°
34°
Mar
57°
38°
Apr
70°
49°
May
74°
55°
Jun
85°
63°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
86°
67°
Sep
79°
62°
Oct
70°
50°
Nov
58°
41°
Dec
49°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Alexandria?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F97±0.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F93±2.1 mph2458% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°82° to 83°±54%12% to 66% chance
Tomorrow±2°82° to 84°±8%1% to 9% chance
Mon±2°81° to 83°±2%2% to 4% chance
Tue±2°85° to 87°±1%1% to 2% chance
Wed±4°88° to 92°±10%0% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Alexandria

today, local time
Sunrise
06:41
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
12h 51m

Common questions

What's the weather in Alexandria today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Alexandria today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Alexandria today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Alexandria and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Alexandria?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Alexandria (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Alexandria?
July is typically the warmest month in Alexandria, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Alexandria get?
The coldest month in Alexandria is January, when overnight lows average about 33°F.
How much rain does Alexandria get?
Alexandria sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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