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CheckWeather AUWarragul
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Warragul weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 15° in Warragul today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 13°, with a 89% chance of rain.

15°
13°
14°
11°
13°
16°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Heavy drizzle
Today 15°·Low 10°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Cloudy
Today 15°·Low 10°·Rain 28%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Warragul and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
13°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
11°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Fri
Fog
16°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
20°
±3°
Sun
Light rain
22°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
18° 11°
±5°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
13°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
20°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
21°
±14°

Warragul is a small town of about 20,000 people in Victoria, sitting at 38.2°S in a temperate climate zone. European, American, German each forecast Warragul with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Drouin, Moe, Newborough.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Warragul?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
G
German ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C93±3.5 km/t7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
84
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C95±2.3 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C79±10.4 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°±72%28% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°12° to 13°±41%48% to 89% chance
Tue±2°13° to 15°±12%0% to 12% chance
Wed±1°11° to 12°±37%46% to 83% chance
Thu±2°12° to 13°±33%0% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Warragul

today, local time
Sunrise
06:30
Sunset
17:58
Daylight
11h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Warragul today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Warragul today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Warragul today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Warragul and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Warragul?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Warragul (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the European at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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