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CheckWeather AU›Umina Beach
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Umina Beach weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Umina Beach's high today between 25° and 28°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 31°, with a 81% chance of rain.

26°16°
31°19°
22°16°
22°13°
23°12°
23°12°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±2°
EuropeanECMWF
28°
Light drizzle
Today 28°·Low 15°·Rain 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Cloudy
Today 25°·Low 17°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
26°
Fog
Today 26°·Low 17°·Rain 5%
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Umina Beach weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Umina Beach swings 17°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 9°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1275 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
9°C average low
Wettest month
February
1275 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
16,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Umina Beach and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Umina Beach hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Umina Beach 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
26° 16°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
31° 19°
±2°
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 16°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 13°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 12°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
23° 12°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
23° 15°
±7°
Sat
Light rain
28° 17°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
20° 16°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 14°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
28° 15°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
21° 15°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
22° 14°
±6°

Umina Beach, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 9°C), with roughly 1275 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Umina Beach right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Umina Beach climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
20°
Feb
25°
19°
Mar
24°
17°
Apr
22°
15°
May
19°
12°
Jun
17°
10°
Jul
16°
9°
Aug
17°
9°
Sep
20°
10°
Oct
22°
13°
Nov
23°
16°
Dec
24°
17°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Umina Beach has changed since 1995

Umina Beach sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Central Coast. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Central Coast page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Umina Beach?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
82
/100rank #1
80±1.1°C95±2.6 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
74
/100rank #2
52±2.7°C88±6.1 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
74
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C94±3.0 km/h5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°25° to 28°±94%0% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±2°30° to 32°±43%38% to 81% chance
Mon±2°21° to 23°±15%65% to 80% chance
Tue±2°20° to 23°±42%19% to 61% chance
Wed±6°20° to 26°±49%13% to 62% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Umina Beach

today, local time
Sunrise
06:03
Sunset
19:15
Daylight
13h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Umina Beach today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Umina Beach's high today between 25° and 28°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 31°, with a 81% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Umina Beach today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Umina Beach on Sunday 25 October: European 62%, American 81%, German 38%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 94%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Umina Beach?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Umina Beach (CheckWeather Score 82/100), ahead of the European at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Umina Beach?
January is typically the warmest month in Umina Beach, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Umina Beach get?
The coldest month in Umina Beach is July, when overnight lows average about 9°C.
How much rain does Umina Beach get?
Umina Beach sees roughly 1275 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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