Thredbo swings 24°C across the year, from 21°C highs in January to -3°C lows in July, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1498 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
January
21°C average high
Coldest month
July
-3°C average low
Wettest month
August
1498 mm a year
Below freezing
3 months
June, July and August
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and December
Residents
300
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The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Thredbo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Thredbo hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Thredbo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Thredbo, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around -3°C), with roughly 1498 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Thredbo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
21°
11°
Feb
20°
9°
Mar
17°
7°
Apr
12°
4°
May
8°
0°
Jun
4°
-1°
Jul
3°
-3°
Aug
5°
-2°
Sep
9°
0°
Oct
13°
3°
Nov
15°
5°
Dec
18°
8°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Thredbo's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.3°C
Around Thredbo, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 30°C
3 fewer days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
7 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−2%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >30°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−1.2°C
−9
+20
+2%
1996
−1.3°C
−10
+10
+8%
1997
+0.3°C
+4
+16
+2%
1998
+0.3°C
+6
+3
+2%
1999
+0.2°C
+1
+10
−4%
2000
−0.2°C
−2
−0
−4%
2001
±0.0°C
+1
−8
+2%
2002
+0.1°C
+2
+4
+8%
2003
+0.1°C
+4
+7
+2%
2004
±0.0°C
+5
−6
+2%
2005
+0.2°C
−6
−10
+2%
2006
+0.8°C
+13
+14
+2%
2007
+0.7°C
+3
−8
+2%
2008
−0.1°C
+2
+5
+2%
2009
+0.6°C
+9
−12
+2%
2010
−0.1°C
−3
+5
−4%
2011
−0.5°C
−8
−6
−4%
2012
−0.7°C
−10
+4
−4%
2013
+0.3°C
+4
−13
+2%
2014
+0.7°C
+10
−11
−4%
2015
+0.2°C
−5
+9
−4%
2016
+0.2°C
−2
−9
+2%
2017
±0.0°C
−7
+14
−4%
2018
+0.4°C
−1
+6
+2%
2019
+0.6°C
+21
+3
+2%
2020
−0.2°C
−2
−4
+2%
2021
−0.9°C
−7
+1
+2%
2022
−0.6°C
−10
−8
−4%
2023
+0.1°C
−10
−17
−4%
2024
+1.0°C
−7
−7
+2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Thredbo, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Thredbo?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C
98±1.1 km/h
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
77
/100rank #2
77±1.3°C
93±3.4 km/h
6581% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
72
/100rank #3
51±2.7°C
93±3.6 km/h
8290% hit
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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Common questions
What's the weather in Thredbo today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Thredbo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Thredbo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Thredbo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Thredbo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Thredbo (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Thredbo?
January is typically the warmest month in Thredbo, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Thredbo get?
The coldest month in Thredbo is July, when overnight lows average about -3°C.
How much rain does Thredbo get?
Thredbo sees roughly 1498 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Thredbo getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Thredbo, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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