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CheckWeather AUSurfers Paradise
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Surfers Paradise weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Surfers Paradise's high today between 32° and 35°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 24°, with a 25% chance of rain.

33°18°
24°15°
22°14°
23°13°
20°15°
21°14°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°Fridaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
32°
Light drizzle
Today 32°·Low 17°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
35°
Cloudy
Today 35°·Low 18°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
33°
Partly cloudy
Today 33°·Low 18°·Rain 0%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Surfers Paradise and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
33° 18°
±3°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
24° 15°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 14°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 13°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 15°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 14°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
22° 14°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
22° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
24° 12°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
27° 14°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
25° 14°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
22° 14°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
22° 13°
models agree
Sat
Clear
25° 12°
models agree

Surfers Paradise, Queensland is at its warmest in Dec (average highs near 29°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 12°C), with roughly 1164 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Surfers Paradise right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Surfers Paradise climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
28°
22°
Feb
28°
22°
Mar
27°
21°
Apr
25°
18°
May
22°
14°
Jun
22°
12°
Jul
21°
12°
Aug
23°
14°
Sep
25°
15°
Oct
26°
17°
Nov
26°
19°
Dec
29°
21°

Which forecast is most accurate in Surfers Paradise?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
83±0.9°C93±3.7 km/t7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
80
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C95±2.7 km/t5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C95±2.4 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°32° to 35°±12%0% to 12% chance
Tomorrow±1°23° to 25°±22%3% to 25% chance
Tue±1°22° to 23°±47%8% to 55% chance
Wed±2°22° to 23°±56%4% to 60% chance
Thu±3°19° to 22°±28%23% to 51% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Surfers Paradise

today, local time
Sunrise
05:55
Sunset
17:35
Daylight
11h 40m

Common questions

What's the weather in Surfers Paradise today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Surfers Paradise today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Surfers Paradise today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Surfers Paradise and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Surfers Paradise?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Surfers Paradise (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the German at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Surfers Paradise?
December is typically the warmest month in Surfers Paradise, with average highs around 29°C.
How cold does Surfers Paradise get?
The coldest month in Surfers Paradise is June, when overnight lows average about 12°C.
How much rain does Surfers Paradise get?
Surfers Paradise sees roughly 1164 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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