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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Mermaid Waters weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Mermaid Waters today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 23°, with a 100% chance of rain.

23°19°
23°20°
30°20°
25°18°
24°19°
23°18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 22° · Wind 18 km/h · Humidity 96%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Drizzle
Feels 21° · Wind 14 km/h · Humidity 97%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Light rain
Feels 23° · Wind 12 km/h · Humidity 90%

Latest for Mermaid Waters: European (ECMWF): 20° Heavy drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 20° Drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 21° Light rain.

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Mermaid Waters weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Mermaid Waters swings 17°C across the year, from 28°C highs in January to 11°C lows in June, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1552 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
28°C average high
Coldest month
June
11°C average low
Wettest month
February
1552 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and June
Residents
12,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Mermaid Waters and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Mermaid Waters hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Mermaid Waters 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
23° 19°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
23° 20°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
30° 20°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
25° 18°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
24° 19°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
23° 18°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
23° 17°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
25° 18°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
30° 17°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
23° 17°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 16°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
24° 17°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
27° 18°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
25° 17°
models agree

Mermaid Waters, Queensland is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 28°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 11°C), with roughly 1552 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Mermaid Waters right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Mermaid Waters climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
28°
22°
Feb
27°
21°
Mar
26°
20°
Apr
24°
17°
May
22°
14°
Jun
21°
11°
Jul
20°
11°
Aug
20°
11°
Sep
24°
14°
Oct
25°
16°
Nov
25°
18°
Dec
28°
20°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Mermaid Waters has changed since 1995

Mermaid Waters sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Gold Coast. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Gold Coast page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Mermaid Waters?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C95±2.3 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
79
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C95±2.5 km/h5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
77±1.3°C95±2.7 km/h5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°23° to 24°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°23° to 24°±15%85% to 100% chance
Mon±1°30° to 31°±28%50% to 78% chance
Tue±2°24° to 26°±52%13% to 65% chance
Wed±2°24° to 25°±36%16% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Mermaid Waters

today, local time
Sunrise
05:01
Sunset
17:59
Daylight
12h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Mermaid Waters today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Mermaid Waters today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 23°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Mermaid Waters today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Mermaid Waters on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 85% (European 100%, American 94%, German 85%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Mermaid Waters?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Mermaid Waters (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the German at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Mermaid Waters?
January is typically the warmest month in Mermaid Waters, with average highs around 28°C.
How cold does Mermaid Waters get?
The coldest month in Mermaid Waters is June, when overnight lows average about 11°C.
How much rain does Mermaid Waters get?
Mermaid Waters sees roughly 1552 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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