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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

St Kilda weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in St Kilda today. Tomorrow: rain, around 22°, with a 100% chance of rain.

18°13°
22°10°
18°9°
21°10°
14°8°
17°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°Saturdaymodels agreeSundaysplit ±2°
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Rain
Feels 17° · Wind 16 km/h · Humidity 66%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Drizzle
Feels 12° · Wind 25 km/h · Humidity 86%
GermanDWD ICON
20°
Thunderstorm
Feels 18° · Wind 18 km/h · Humidity 65%

Latest for St Kilda: European (ECMWF): 19° Rain · American (NOAA GFS): 15° Drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 20° Thunderstorm.

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St Kilda weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

St Kilda swings 19°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 6°C lows in August, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 641 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
August
6°C average low
Wettest month
November
641 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
19,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around St Kilda and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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St Kilda hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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St Kilda 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
22° 10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 9°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
21° 10°
±3°
Sat
Light rain
14° 8°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
17° 9°
±2°
Mon
Cloudy
23° 8°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
28° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
18° 12°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
15° 12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17° 12°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
23° 11°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
25° 13°
±14°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
23° 10°
±7°

St Kilda, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 6°C), with roughly 641 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for St Kilda right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

St Kilda climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
15°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
23°
14°
Apr
19°
11°
May
16°
8°
Jun
14°
7°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
17°
8°
Oct
18°
9°
Nov
21°
12°
Dec
23°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around St Kilda has changed since 1995

St Kilda sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Melbourne. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Melbourne page.

Which forecast is most accurate in St Kilda?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
G
German ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
78±1.2°C94±3.1 km/h9597% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C95±2.3 km/h8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
84
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C92±4.2 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°17° to 18°±49%35% to 84% chance
Tomorrow±1°21° to 22°±7%93% to 100% chance
Thu±2°17° to 18°±31%35% to 66% chance
Fri±3°20° to 23°±21%63% to 84% chance
Sat±1°14° to 15°±13%77% to 90% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in St Kilda

today, local time
Sunrise
06:11
Sunset
19:56
Daylight
13h 45m

Common questions

What's the weather in St Kilda today?
Tuesday 3 November: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in St Kilda today. Tomorrow: rain, around 22°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in St Kilda today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in St Kilda on Wednesday 4 November: every model gives at least 93% (European 100%, American 100%, German 93%). On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 84%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for St Kilda?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for St Kilda (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in St Kilda?
January is typically the warmest month in St Kilda, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does St Kilda get?
The coldest month in St Kilda is August, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does St Kilda get?
St Kilda sees roughly 641 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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