Elsternwick weather
Loading live data…Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 17° in Elsternwick today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 44% chance of rain.
Latest for Elsternwick: European (ECMWF): 14° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 14° Light drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 14° Partly cloudy.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Elsternwick and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models14-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they splitElsternwick is a small town of about 11,000 people in Victoria, sitting at 37.9°S in a temperate climate zone. European, American, German each forecast Elsternwick with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Caulfield, Elwood, Brighton.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.
Which forecast is most accurate in Elsternwick?
CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.