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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Reservoir weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 22° in Reservoir today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

22°16°
18°10°
15°7°
16°7°
18°7°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light rain
Feels 20° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 95%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Drizzle
Feels 18° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 97%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Light showers
Feels 22° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 95%

Latest for Reservoir: European (ECMWF): 18° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 17° Drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 19° Light showers.

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Reservoir weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Reservoir swings 21°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 5°C lows in July, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 667 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
5°C average low
Wettest month
November
667 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
51,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Reservoir and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Reservoir hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Reservoir 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
22° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
18° 10°
±2°
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 7°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 7°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 7°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±4°
Fri
Light rain
18° 12°
±10°
Sat
Rain
19° 11°
±3°
Sun
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
19° 7°
±5°
Tue
Light rain
22° 9°
±4°
Wed
Drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
20° 9°
±10°
Fri
Partly cloudy
25° 10°
±6°

Reservoir, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 5°C), with roughly 667 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Reservoir right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Reservoir climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
26°
14°
Mar
23°
12°
Apr
19°
9°
May
16°
7°
Jun
13°
6°
Jul
12°
5°
Aug
14°
5°
Sep
16°
6°
Oct
18°
8°
Nov
21°
10°
Dec
24°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Reservoir has changed since 1995

Reservoir sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Craigieburn. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Craigieburn page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Reservoir?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±1.1 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
87
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C97±1.7 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
85
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C95±2.6 km/h8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°22° to 22°±36%55% to 91% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 19°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±3°14° to 17°±23%26% to 49% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±34%13% to 47% chance
Wed±4°16° to 20°±20%3% to 23% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Reservoir

today, local time
Sunrise
06:23
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Reservoir today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 22° in Reservoir today. Tomorrow: heavy drizzle, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Reservoir today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Reservoir on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 91%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Reservoir?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Reservoir (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Reservoir?
January is typically the warmest month in Reservoir, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Reservoir get?
The coldest month in Reservoir is July, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Reservoir get?
Reservoir sees roughly 667 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

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