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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Penrith weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 30° in Penrith today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 33°, with a 87% chance of rain.

30°15°
33°17°
22°15°
25°12°
26°9°
27°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Clear
Feels 21° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 91%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Mainly clear
Feels 20° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 84%
GermanDWD ICON
18°
Fog
Feels 20° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 96%

Latest for Penrith: European (ECMWF): 19° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 18° Mainly clear · German (DWD ICON): 18° Fog.

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Penrith weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Penrith swings 25°C across the year, from 29°C highs in January to 4°C lows in August, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 884 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
29°C average high
Coldest month
August
4°C average low
Wettest month
February
884 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and June
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Penrith and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Penrith hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Penrith 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
30° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
33° 17°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 15°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
25° 12°
±3°
Wed
Partly cloudy
26° 9°
±3°
Thu
Mostly clear
27° 10°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
25° 13°
±9°
Sat
Light rain
27° 16°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
24° 15°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
20° 13°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
25° 13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
30° 14°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
21° 14°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
27° 14°
±5°

Penrith, New South Wales is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 29°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 4°C), with roughly 884 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Penrith right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Penrith climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
29°
18°
Feb
28°
18°
Mar
25°
14°
Apr
22°
12°
May
19°
9°
Jun
17°
7°
Jul
16°
5°
Aug
16°
4°
Sep
21°
7°
Oct
23°
9°
Nov
25°
13°
Dec
28°
15°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Penrith has changed since 1995

Penrith sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Blacktown. That square ran 0.7°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Blacktown page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Penrith?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C95±2.3 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
80
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C96±1.9 km/h6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
68
/100rank #3
64±2.0°C90±5.1 km/h5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°29° to 30°±44%5% to 49% chance
Tomorrow±3°32° to 35°±42%45% to 87% chance
Mon±6°19° to 25°±25%59% to 84% chance
Tue±3°24° to 27°±38%10% to 48% chance
Wed±3°25° to 27°±29%9% to 38% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Penrith

today, local time
Sunrise
06:05
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
13h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Penrith today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 30° in Penrith today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 33°, with a 87% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Penrith today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Penrith on Sunday 25 October: European 53%, American 87%, German 45%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 49%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Penrith?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Penrith (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Penrith?
January is typically the warmest month in Penrith, with average highs around 29°C.
How cold does Penrith get?
The coldest month in Penrith is August, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Penrith get?
Penrith sees roughly 884 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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