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Langwarrin weekend weather

This weekend in Langwarrin, Victoria, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 15° across the weekend. Agreement is medium — plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day.

Tomorrow

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Cloudy
High 14°·Low ·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Cloudy
High 15°·Low ·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Fog
High 15°·Low ·Rain 0%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Mostly clear
High 15°·Low ·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Cloudy
High 16°·Low ·Rain 1%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Cloudy
High 15°·Low ·Rain 17%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree11° to 12°±29%3% to 32% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±1°15° to 16°±16%1% to 17% chance
Mon±3°10° to 13°±53%32% to 85% chance
Tue±1°11° to 12°±42%29% to 71% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
The models are not currently showing a high weekend rain risk, and they broadly agree with each other.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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