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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Kelmscott weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 17° in Kelmscott today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 29% chance of rain.

17°6°
19°5°
21°8°
26°10°
28°13°
29°14°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Clear
Feels 9° · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 53%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Clear
Feels 6° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 50%
GermanDWD ICON
12°
Mainly clear
Feels 9° · Wind 10 km/h · Humidity 54%

Latest for Kelmscott: European (ECMWF): 12° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 12° Mainly clear.

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Kelmscott weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Kelmscott swings 24°C across the year, from 32°C highs in January to 8°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 860 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
32°C average high
Coldest month
July
8°C average low
Wettest month
July
860 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, June and August
Residents
11,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Kelmscott and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kelmscott hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kelmscott 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
17° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
19° 5°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
21° 8°
±5°
Tue
Partly cloudy
26° 10°
models agree
Wed
Clear
28° 13°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
29° 14°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
26° 13°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
26° 12°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
22° 14°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
22° 13°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
23° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
24° 12°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
23° 12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
24° 11°
models agree

Kelmscott, Western Australia is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 32°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 8°C), with roughly 860 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Kelmscott right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Kelmscott climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
32°
17°
Feb
32°
17°
Mar
28°
16°
Apr
24°
14°
May
21°
12°
Jun
17°
9°
Jul
16°
8°
Aug
17°
8°
Sep
18°
9°
Oct
22°
10°
Nov
25°
12°
Dec
29°
15°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Kelmscott has changed since 1995

Kelmscott sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Ellenbrook. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Ellenbrook page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Kelmscott?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
84±0.9°C95±2.4 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
82±1.0°C95±2.4 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
76
/100rank #3
79±1.2°C95±2.3 km/h5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°16° to 18°±57%25% to 82% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree19° to 19°±26%3% to 29% chance
Mon±5°18° to 23°±71%9% to 80% chance
Tuemodels agree26° to 26°±4%0% to 4% chance
Wed±1°27° to 29°±24%4% to 28% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kelmscott

today, local time
Sunrise
05:26
Sunset
18:34
Daylight
13h 8m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kelmscott today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 17° in Kelmscott today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 29% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kelmscott today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kelmscott on Sunday 25 October: European 29%, American 3%, German 5%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 82%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kelmscott?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kelmscott (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kelmscott?
January is typically the warmest month in Kelmscott, with average highs around 32°C.
How cold does Kelmscott get?
The coldest month in Kelmscott is July, when overnight lows average about 8°C.
How much rain does Kelmscott get?
Kelmscott sees roughly 860 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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