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CheckWeather AU›Keilor East
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Keilor East weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Keilor East today. Tomorrow: rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

21°16°
18°9°
15°7°
16°7°
18°8°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±2°
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 84%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Heavy drizzle
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 97%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Thunderstorm
Today 21°·Low 17°·Rain 78%
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Keilor East weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Keilor East swings 20°C across the year, from 26°C highs in February to 6°C lows in July, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 550 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
6°C average low
Wettest month
November
550 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
15,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Keilor East and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Keilor East hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Keilor East 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
21° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
18° 9°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 7°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16° 7°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 8°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±2°
Fri
Light rain
18° 13°
±8°
Sat
Rain
20° 12°
±2°
Sun
Light drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
19° 8°
±6°
Tue
Drizzle
22° 10°
±5°
Wed
Drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
20° 11°
±10°
Fri
Light drizzle
24° 12°
±8°

Keilor East, Victoria is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 550 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Keilor East right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Keilor East climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
25°
14°
Feb
26°
14°
Mar
23°
12°
Apr
19°
10°
May
16°
8°
Jun
13°
7°
Jul
12°
6°
Aug
14°
6°
Sep
16°
6°
Oct
18°
8°
Nov
20°
10°
Dec
23°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Keilor East has changed since 1995

Keilor East sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Craigieburn. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Craigieburn page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Keilor East?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.6 km/h100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
92
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C95±2.7 km/h9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
89
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C96±2.0 km/h8994% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 21°±19%78% to 97% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 19°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 17°±15%8% to 23% chance
Tuemodels agree16° to 16°±38%5% to 43% chance
Wed±3°17° to 19°±16%0% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Keilor East

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Keilor East today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Keilor East today. Tomorrow: rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Keilor East today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Keilor East on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 97%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Keilor East?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Keilor East (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Keilor East?
February is typically the warmest month in Keilor East, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Keilor East get?
The coldest month in Keilor East is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Keilor East get?
Keilor East sees roughly 550 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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