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Hervey Bay weekend weather

This weekend in Hervey Bay, Queensland, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 21° across the weekend. Agreement is low — the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 53% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (43 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.

Tomorrow

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
High 21°·Low 12°·Rain 33%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Drizzle
High 22°·Low 13°·Rain 26%
GermanDWD ICON
20°
Partly cloudy
High 20°·Low 14°·Rain 13%

All 3 models land within 2° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
High 21°·Low 12°·Rain 53%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Heavy drizzle
High 21°·Low 14°·Rain 35%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Cloudy
High 21°·Low 14°·Rain 10%

All 3 models land within under a degree of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°19° to 20°±16%80% to 96% chance
Tomorrow±2°20° to 22°±20%13% to 33% chance
Sunmodels agree21° to 21°±43%10% to 53% chance
Mon±1°21° to 21°±31%0% to 31% chance
Tue±1°21° to 22°±32%0% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 53%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers — when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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