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CheckWeather AUFerntree Gully
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Ferntree Gully weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Ferntree Gully's high today between 15° and 18°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 13°, with a 92% chance of rain.

16°11°
13°
14°
12°
13°
16°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Drizzle
Today 15°·Low 11°·Rain 98%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 10°·Rain 75%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Cloudy
Today 15°·Low 11°·Rain 48%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Ferntree Gully and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
16° 11°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
14°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
12°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
16°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
21°
±3°
Sun
Light rain
21° 10°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
17° 10°
±3°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
14°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
20°
±10°

Ferntree Gully, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 5°C), with roughly 994 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Ferntree Gully right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Ferntree Gully climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
25°
14°
Feb
25°
13°
Mar
23°
12°
Apr
18°
May
15°
Jun
12°
Jul
12°
Aug
15°
Sep
17°
Oct
18°
Nov
22°
11°
Dec
24°
12°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ferntree Gully?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C96±2.1 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
83
/100rank #2
90±0.5°C97±1.5 km/t6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C91±4.4 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°15° to 18°±50%48% to 98% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree13° to 13°±57%35% to 92% chance
Tue±3°13° to 16°±10%0% to 10% chance
Wedmodels agree12° to 12°±10%63% to 73% chance
Thu±1°12° to 13°±10%2% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ferntree Gully

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
11h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ferntree Gully today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Ferntree Gully today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ferntree Gully today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Ferntree Gully and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ferntree Gully?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ferntree Gully (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ferntree Gully?
January is typically the warmest month in Ferntree Gully, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Ferntree Gully get?
The coldest month in Ferntree Gully is July, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Ferntree Gully get?
Ferntree Gully sees roughly 994 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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