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CheckWeather AUEltham
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Eltham weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Eltham today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 76% chance of rain.

18°11°
14°
16°
13°
14°
18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Light drizzle
Today 17°·Low 11°·Rain 80%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 11°·Rain 52%
GermanDWD ICON
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 11°·Rain 48%

The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Eltham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
18°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
22°
±3°
Sun
Light rain
22° 10°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
19° 10°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
15°
±6°
Wed
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
19°
models agree
Fri
Heavy drizzle
18° 11°
±2°
Sat
Partly cloudy
21°
±8°

Eltham is a small town of about 19,000 people in Victoria, sitting at 37.7°S in a temperate climate zone. European, American, German each forecast Eltham with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Templestowe, Montmorency, Eltham North.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Eltham?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
84±0.9°C95±2.7 km/t8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
86
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C97±1.3 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
85
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C96±1.8 km/t7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1493 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°17° to 18°±32%48% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°±41%35% to 76% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±1°13° to 14°±14%63% to 77% chance
Thu±2°13° to 15°±12%2% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Eltham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
11h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Eltham today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Eltham today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Eltham today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Eltham and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Eltham?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Eltham (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the European at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

More AU weather