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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Eltham weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Eltham today. Tomorrow: rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain.

23°16°
18°10°
15°7°
16°7°
18°7°
21°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±4°
EuropeanECMWF
24°
Light rain
Today 24°·Low 16°·Rain 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Light rain
Today 23°·Low 16°·Rain 81%
GermanDWD ICON
22°
Showers
Today 22°·Low 17°·Rain 55%
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Eltham weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Eltham swings 21°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 5°C lows in July, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 752 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
5°C average low
Wettest month
November
752 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
19,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Eltham and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Eltham hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Eltham 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
23° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 7°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 7°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 7°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
21° 10°
±4°
Fri
Light rain
18° 11°
±11°
Sat
Light rain
20° 11°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 6°
±3°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
23° 9°
±4°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
18° 11°
±2°
Thu
Partly cloudy
21° 9°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
25° 9°
±5°

Eltham, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 5°C), with roughly 752 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Eltham right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Eltham climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
14°
Feb
26°
13°
Mar
23°
12°
Apr
19°
9°
May
16°
7°
Jun
13°
6°
Jul
12°
5°
Aug
14°
5°
Sep
16°
6°
Oct
18°
7°
Nov
21°
10°
Dec
24°
12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Eltham has changed since 1995

Eltham sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Craigieburn. That square ran 0.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Craigieburn page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Eltham?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C97±1.3 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
70±1.7°C96±2.2 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
77
/100rank #3
75±1.4°C96±2.0 km/h6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±31%55% to 86% chance
Tomorrow±2°17° to 19°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±3°14° to 17°±35%26% to 61% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±14%13% to 27% chance
Wed±4°16° to 20°±21%3% to 24% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Eltham

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:44
Daylight
13h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Eltham today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Eltham today. Tomorrow: rain, around 18°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Eltham today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Eltham on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 86%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Eltham?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Eltham (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Eltham?
January is typically the warmest month in Eltham, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Eltham get?
The coldest month in Eltham is July, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Eltham get?
Eltham sees roughly 752 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More AU weather