Cairns weather
Loading live data…Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
European, the American and the German model put Cairns's high today between 29° and 31°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 30°, with a 100% chance of rain.
Latest for Cairns: European (ECMWF): 23° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 22° Mainly clear · German (DWD ICON): 24° Partly cloudy.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Cairns weather in numbers
from 30 years of measured normalsCairns swings 15°C across the year, from 31°C highs in January to 16°C lows in August, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 2012 mm of precipitation.
The weather map: all three models at once
European, American, German side by side around Cairns and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Cairns hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Cairns 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitCairns, Queensland. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Cairns right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Cairns's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.
Cairns weather by month
what to expect in Cairns through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Cairns's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Cairns by season.
What Cairns's weather is like through the year
Cairns runs from warm summers, with January highs near 31°C, to cool winters, when August lows sit around 16°C (a swing of about 15°C across the year). February is usually the wettest month, and Cairns sees roughly 2012 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Cairns
The most comfortable time to visit Cairns is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest February rain is behind you.
How Cairns' weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Cairns, 2015-2024 averaged 0.8°C warmer than 1995-2004. 9 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2016.
Days above 30°C
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >30°C vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.3°C | +2 | +2% |
| 1996 | −0.2°C | −3 | −1% |
| 1997 | −0.9°C | −16 | −1% |
| 1998 | +0.4°C | −30 | −5% |
| 1999 | −0.7°C | −38 | −1% |
| 2000 | −0.7°C | −29 | +2% |
| 2001 | ±0.0°C | +9 | −1% |
| 2002 | +0.1°C | +16 | +2% |
| 2003 | +0.1°C | +5 | +2% |
| 2004 | −0.2°C | −1 | +2% |
| 2005 | −0.1°C | +11 | +2% |
| 2006 | −0.9°C | −25 | +9% |
| 2007 | −0.5°C | −6 | +2% |
| 2008 | −0.4°C | −10 | +2% |
| 2009 | −0.1°C | −20 | −5% |
| 2010 | +0.1°C | −45 | −1% |
| 2011 | −0.8°C | −21 | −5% |
| 2012 | −0.5°C | −1 | −1% |
| 2013 | −0.1°C | −2 | −1% |
| 2014 | −0.3°C | +7 | +2% |
| 2015 | +0.2°C | +12 | +2% |
| 2016 | +0.9°C | +38 | −5% |
| 2017 | +0.6°C | +9 | +2% |
| 2018 | +0.4°C | +21 | +2% |
| 2019 | +0.1°C | +15 | +6% |
| 2020 | +0.7°C | +38 | +2% |
| 2021 | +0.6°C | +26 | −5% |
| 2022 | +0.9°C | +33 | −8% |
| 2023 | +0.5°C | −4 | +2% |
| 2024 | +0.8°C | +9 | −1% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Cairns, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Cairns?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Cairns, scoring 87/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 58. See the full AU accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.