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Bathurst weekend weather

This weekend in Bathurst, New South Wales, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 22° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 73% on at least one model.

Sat

2026-10-10 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Rain
High 19°·Low 10°·Rain 59%
AmericanNOAA GFS
26°
Heavy drizzle
High 26°·Low 8°·Rain 47%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Thunderstorm
High 19°·Low 9°·Rain 73%

The models are 8° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Sun

2026-10-11 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
High 18°·Low 11°·Rain 38%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Cloudy
High 23°·Low 9°·Rain 37%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Cloudy
High 19°·Low 11°·Rain 73%

The models are 5° apart on this day. That is genuine uncertainty — any app showing you a single confident number is hiding it.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°16° to 19°±65%15% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±2°18° to 21°±63%16% to 79% chance
Wed±2°17° to 19°±2%0% to 2% chance
Thu±2°19° to 21°models agree0% to 0% chance
Fri±3°22° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 73%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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