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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ashgrove weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 25° in Ashgrove today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 25°, with a 100% chance of rain.

25°19°
25°19°
31°20°
29°19°
28°19°
24°18°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±5°
EuropeanECMWF
25°
Light rain
Today 25°·Low 18°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
24°
Heavy drizzle
Today 24°·Low 18°·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
25°
Thunderstorm
Today 25°·Low 20°·Rain 93%
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Ashgrove weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ashgrove swings 20°C across the year, from 29°C highs in January to 9°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1094 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
29°C average high
Coldest month
July
9°C average low
Wettest month
February
1094 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, June and July
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Ashgrove and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ashgrove hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ashgrove 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
25° 19°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
25° 19°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
31° 20°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
29° 19°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
28° 19°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
24° 18°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
24° 18°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
27° 19°
±2°
Sun
Mostly clear
30° 19°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
24° 18°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
23° 16°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
25° 18°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
28° 17°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
26° 18°
models agree

Ashgrove, Queensland is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 29°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 9°C), with roughly 1094 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Ashgrove right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Ashgrove climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
29°
20°
Feb
28°
19°
Mar
27°
19°
Apr
25°
15°
May
23°
12°
Jun
22°
10°
Jul
20°
9°
Aug
22°
10°
Sep
25°
12°
Oct
26°
14°
Nov
27°
17°
Dec
29°
19°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Ashgrove has changed since 1995

Ashgrove sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Brisbane. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Brisbane page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Ashgrove?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C99±0.6 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
78
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C98±1.2 km/h5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
73
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C89±5.7 km/h4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°24° to 25°±7%93% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°24° to 26°±12%88% to 100% chance
Mon±1°31° to 32°±12%59% to 71% chance
Tue±2°29° to 31°±27%13% to 40% chance
Wed±4°25° to 29°±27%18% to 45% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ashgrove

today, local time
Sunrise
05:03
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
12h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ashgrove today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 25° in Ashgrove today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 25°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Ashgrove today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Ashgrove on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 88% (European 100%, American 94%, German 88%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ashgrove?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ashgrove (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the German at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ashgrove?
January is typically the warmest month in Ashgrove, with average highs around 29°C.
How cold does Ashgrove get?
The coldest month in Ashgrove is July, when overnight lows average about 9°C.
How much rain does Ashgrove get?
Ashgrove sees roughly 1094 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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