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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Aldinga Beach weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Aldinga Beach today. Tomorrow: rain, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.

23°13°
16°10°
15°10°
18°9°
19°9°
21°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Light rain
Feels 12° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 92%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Drizzle
Feels 11° · Wind 15 km/h · Humidity 93%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Light showers
Feels 12° · Wind 25 km/h · Humidity 86%

Latest for Aldinga Beach: European (ECMWF): 14° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 13° Drizzle · German (DWD ICON): 15° Light showers.

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Aldinga Beach weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Aldinga Beach swings 17°C across the year, from 26°C highs in January to 9°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 591 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
26°C average high
Coldest month
July
9°C average low
Wettest month
July
591 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
10,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Aldinga Beach and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Aldinga Beach hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Aldinga Beach 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
23° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
16° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
18° 9°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
19° 9°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
21° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
18° 14°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
19° 12°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
20° 11°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
25° 11°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
18° 12°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
23° 11°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
27° 13°
±7°

Aldinga Beach, South Australia is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 9°C), with roughly 591 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Aldinga Beach right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Aldinga Beach climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
26°
16°
Feb
26°
16°
Mar
23°
15°
Apr
20°
14°
May
17°
11°
Jun
15°
10°
Jul
14°
9°
Aug
15°
9°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
19°
11°
Nov
22°
13°
Dec
23°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Aldinga Beach's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°C

Around Aldinga Beach, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004. 4 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2017.

1995: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1999: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2000: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2002: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2004: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2006: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2010: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2012: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2015: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2022: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 30°C

2 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −6 vs the 30-year average1996: −6 vs the 30-year average1997: +1 vs the 30-year average1998: −4 vs the 30-year average1999: +2 vs the 30-year average2000: +8 vs the 30-year average2001: +6 vs the 30-year average2002: −6 vs the 30-year average2003: +1 vs the 30-year average2004: −6 vs the 30-year average2005: −1 vs the 30-year average2006: −4 vs the 30-year average2007: +1 vs the 30-year average2008: +1 vs the 30-year average2009: +10 vs the 30-year average2010: −3 vs the 30-year average2011: −10 vs the 30-year average2012: +0 vs the 30-year average2013: +6 vs the 30-year average2014: +0 vs the 30-year average2015: +4 vs the 30-year average2016: −5 vs the 30-year average2017: +11 vs the 30-year average2018: +8 vs the 30-year average2019: +14 vs the 30-year average2020: −10 vs the 30-year average2021: −3 vs the 30-year average2022: −7 vs the 30-year average2023: −4 vs the 30-year average2024: −1 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +7% vs the 30-year average1997: −7% vs the 30-year average1998: −5% vs the 30-year average1999: −3% vs the 30-year average2000: +0% vs the 30-year average2001: +0% vs the 30-year average2002: +5% vs the 30-year average2003: +5% vs the 30-year average2004: +0% vs the 30-year average2005: +0% vs the 30-year average2006: −2% vs the 30-year average2007: +3% vs the 30-year average2008: +2% vs the 30-year average2009: +2% vs the 30-year average2010: −7% vs the 30-year average2011: −3% vs the 30-year average2012: +0% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −3% vs the 30-year average2015: −3% vs the 30-year average2016: +3% vs the 30-year average2017: −3% vs the 30-year average2018: +3% vs the 30-year average2019: +0% vs the 30-year average2020: +2% vs the 30-year average2021: +2% vs the 30-year average2022: +0% vs the 30-year average2023: +2% vs the 30-year average2024: −7% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >30°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.7°C−6+5%
1996−0.7°C−6+7%
1997−0.3°C+1−7%
1998−0.4°C−4−5%
1999−0.1°C+2−3%
2000+0.2°C+8+0%
2001−0.2°C+6+0%
2002−0.3°C−6+5%
2003−0.7°C+1+5%
2004−0.3°C−6+0%
2005+0.1°C−1+0%
2006−0.4°C−4−2%
2007+0.3°C+1+3%
2008−0.2°C+1+2%
2009+0.5°C+10+2%
2010−0.1°C−3−7%
2011−0.1°C−10−3%
2012±0.0°C+0+0%
2013+0.6°C+6+2%
2014+0.4°C+0−3%
2015+0.1°C+4−3%
2016±0.0°C−5+3%
2017+0.8°C+11−3%
2018+0.8°C+8+3%
2019+0.6°C+14+0%
2020−0.4°C−10+2%
2021−0.2°C−3+2%
2022±0.0°C−7+0%
2023+0.1°C−4+2%
2024+0.5°C−1−7%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Aldinga Beach, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Aldinga Beach?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C96±1.9 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
86
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C95±2.7 km/h8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
83±0.9°C93±3.7 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±5%90% to 95% chance
Tomorrow±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±16%13% to 29% chance
Tue±2°17° to 19°±23%8% to 31% chance
Wed±4°18° to 22°±7%3% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Aldinga Beach

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:38
Daylight
13h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Aldinga Beach today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 23° in Aldinga Beach today. Tomorrow: rain, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Aldinga Beach today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Aldinga Beach on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 95%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Aldinga Beach?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Aldinga Beach (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the German at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Aldinga Beach?
January is typically the warmest month in Aldinga Beach, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Aldinga Beach get?
The coldest month in Aldinga Beach is July, when overnight lows average about 9°C.
How much rain does Aldinga Beach get?
Aldinga Beach sees roughly 591 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Aldinga Beach getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Aldinga Beach, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004.

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