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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Waco weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Waco today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 80°, with a 1% chance of rain.

82°58°
80°60°
79°57°
79°62°
81°62°
81°64°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
59°
Clear
Feels 60° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 92%
AmericanNOAA GFS
54°
Clear
Feels 52° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 78%
EuropeanECMWF
64°
Clear
Feels 65° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 80%

Latest for Waco: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 59° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 54° Clear · European (ECMWF): 64° Clear.

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Waco weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Waco…

Waco weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Waco swings 58°F across the year, from 98°F highs in August to 40°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 38 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 215 days a year at 77°F or above, 137 of them at 86°F or above, 11 frost nights, and rain on 103 days.

Warmest month
August
98°F average high
Coldest month
January
40°F average low
Wettest month
May
38 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and November
Residents
132,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
89/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
215 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
11 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
103 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Waco’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Waco and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Waco hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Waco 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
82° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
80° 60°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
79° 57°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
79° 62°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
81° 62°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
81° 64°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
77° 64°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
83° 65°
±8°
Sun
Drizzle
82° 67°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
79° 62°
±7°
Tue
Clear
75° 55°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
76° 54°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
72° 55°
±8°

Waco, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 98°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 40°F), with roughly 38 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Waco right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Waco climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
58°
40°
Feb
64°
44°
Mar
69°
50°
Apr
76°
58°
May
83°
67°
Jun
92°
74°
Jul
95°
76°
Aug
98°
76°
Sep
88°
70°
Oct
80°
59°
Nov
67°
48°
Dec
60°
42°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Waco's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.3°F

Around Waco, 2015-2024 averaged 1.3°F warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2023.

1995: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average1996: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average1997: −2.1°F vs the 30-year average1998: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average1999: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.4°F vs the 30-year average2001: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2003: −0.7°F vs the 30-year average2004: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average2005: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2006: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2007: −2.3°F vs the 30-year average2008: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2009: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2010: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2011: +2.2°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2013: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2014: −1.8°F vs the 30-year average2015: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2016: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2019: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2020: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2021: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2022: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2023: +2.7°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.2°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

7 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −19 vs the 30-year average1996: +9 vs the 30-year average1997: +3 vs the 30-year average1998: +28 vs the 30-year average1999: +2 vs the 30-year average2000: +19 vs the 30-year average2001: −16 vs the 30-year average2002: +2 vs the 30-year average2003: −10 vs the 30-year average2004: −56 vs the 30-year average2005: +17 vs the 30-year average2006: +9 vs the 30-year average2007: −65 vs the 30-year average2008: +2 vs the 30-year average2009: +8 vs the 30-year average2010: −6 vs the 30-year average2011: +50 vs the 30-year average2012: −0 vs the 30-year average2013: +14 vs the 30-year average2014: −8 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: −44 vs the 30-year average2017: −20 vs the 30-year average2018: +22 vs the 30-year average2019: +8 vs the 30-year average2020: +1 vs the 30-year average2021: −25 vs the 30-year average2022: +42 vs the 30-year average2023: +36 vs the 30-year average2024: +3 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

7 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −1 vs the 30-year average1996: +13 vs the 30-year average1997: +7 vs the 30-year average1998: −6 vs the 30-year average1999: −7 vs the 30-year average2000: +3 vs the 30-year average2001: +2 vs the 30-year average2002: +3 vs the 30-year average2003: +5 vs the 30-year average2004: +4 vs the 30-year average2005: −8 vs the 30-year average2006: −9 vs the 30-year average2007: +6 vs the 30-year average2008: −0 vs the 30-year average2009: +1 vs the 30-year average2010: +12 vs the 30-year average2011: +11 vs the 30-year average2012: −7 vs the 30-year average2013: +16 vs the 30-year average2014: +13 vs the 30-year average2015: −0 vs the 30-year average2016: −2 vs the 30-year average2017: −14 vs the 30-year average2018: +1 vs the 30-year average2019: −1 vs the 30-year average2020: −12 vs the 30-year average2021: −8 vs the 30-year average2022: +11 vs the 30-year average2023: −14 vs the 30-year average2024: −15 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−3%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +2% vs the 30-year average1996: +13% vs the 30-year average1997: −3% vs the 30-year average1998: +4% vs the 30-year average1999: +2% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −1% vs the 30-year average2002: +2% vs the 30-year average2003: −3% vs the 30-year average2004: −3% vs the 30-year average2005: −10% vs the 30-year average2006: +4% vs the 30-year average2007: −8% vs the 30-year average2008: +6% vs the 30-year average2009: +2% vs the 30-year average2010: −1% vs the 30-year average2011: +11% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: −1% vs the 30-year average2014: +2% vs the 30-year average2015: −6% vs the 30-year average2016: −6% vs the 30-year average2017: +2% vs the 30-year average2018: +2% vs the 30-year average2019: −1% vs the 30-year average2020: −1% vs the 30-year average2021: −3% vs the 30-year average2022: +2% vs the 30-year average2023: −3% vs the 30-year average2024: −6% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.1°F−19−1+2%
1996−0.3°F+9+13+13%
1997−2.1°F+3+7−3%
1998+1.1°F+28−6+4%
1999+1.3°F+2−7+2%
2000+0.4°F+19+3+4%
2001−1.4°F−16+2−1%
2002−0.9°F+2+3+2%
2003−0.7°F−10+5−3%
2004−1.2°F−56+4−3%
2005±0.0°F+17−8−10%
2006+1.3°F+9−9+4%
2007−2.3°F−65+6−8%
2008−0.5°F+2−0+6%
2009−0.5°F+8+1+2%
2010−1.4°F−6+12−1%
2011+2.2°F+50+11+11%
2012+1.1°F−0−7−1%
2013−0.9°F+14+16−1%
2014−1.8°F−8+13+2%
2015−0.2°F+2−0−6%
2016±0.0°F−44−2−6%
2017+1.3°F−20−14+2%
2018+0.2°F+22+1+2%
2019−0.5°F+8−1−1%
2020+0.6°F+1−12−1%
2021+0.2°F−25−8−3%
2022+1.6°F+42+11+2%
2023+2.7°F+36−14−3%
2024+2.2°F+3−15−6%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Waco, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Waco?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F96±1.2 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F95±1.5 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°82° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°78° to 82°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±3°78° to 81°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±3°77° to 80°±17%10% to 27% chance
Wed±4°79° to 83°±7%6% to 13% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waco

today, local time
Sunrise
07:38
Sunset
18:46
Daylight
11h 8m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waco today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Waco today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 80°, with a 1% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Waco today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Waco on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 1% (NWS 1%, American 1%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waco?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waco (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waco?
August is typically the warmest month in Waco, with average highs around 98°F.
How cold does Waco get?
The coldest month in Waco is January, when overnight lows average about 40°F.
How much rain does Waco get?
Waco sees roughly 38 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.
Is Waco getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Waco, 2015-2024 averaged 1.3°F warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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