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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Victoria weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 86° in Victoria today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 83°, with a 1% chance of rain.

86°65°
83°66°
81°64°
79°68°
83°67°
82°68°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
65°
Clear
Feels 69° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
63°
Clear
Feels 63° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 91%
EuropeanECMWF
68°
Clear
Feels 71° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 85%

Latest for Victoria: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 65° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 63° Clear · European (ECMWF): 68° Clear.

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Victoria weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Victoria…

Victoria weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Victoria swings 47°F across the year, from 94°F highs in August to 47°F lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 40 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 249 days a year at 77°F or above, 154 of them at 86°F or above, 4 frost nights, and rain on 129 days.

Warmest month
August
94°F average high
Coldest month
January
47°F average low
Wettest month
October
40 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and November
Residents
68,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
249 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
4 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
129 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Victoria’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Victoria and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Victoria hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Victoria 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
86° 65°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
83° 66°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
81° 64°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
79° 68°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
83° 67°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
82° 68°
±7°
Fri
Drizzle
81° 68°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
85° 68°
±7°
Sun
Partly cloudy
85° 70°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
84° 68°
±13°
Tue
Partly cloudy
81° 60°
±10°
Wed
Cloudy
77° 58°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
79° 61°
±4°

Victoria, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 94°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 47°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Victoria right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Victoria climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
65°
47°
Feb
69°
51°
Mar
72°
57°
Apr
80°
63°
May
85°
70°
Jun
91°
75°
Jul
92°
75°
Aug
94°
75°
Sep
88°
71°
Oct
82°
64°
Nov
73°
56°
Dec
65°
48°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Victoria's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.4°F

Around Victoria, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average1996: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average1997: −2.7°F vs the 30-year average1998: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average1999: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2001: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2003: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2005: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2007: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2008: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2009: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2010: −2.2°F vs the 30-year average2011: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.4°F vs the 30-year average2013: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2014: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2015: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2016: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2018: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average2019: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2021: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2023: +2.5°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.8°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

17 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −5 vs the 30-year average1996: −9 vs the 30-year average1997: −16 vs the 30-year average1998: +27 vs the 30-year average1999: −7 vs the 30-year average2000: +10 vs the 30-year average2001: +5 vs the 30-year average2002: −16 vs the 30-year average2003: −21 vs the 30-year average2004: −34 vs the 30-year average2005: +14 vs the 30-year average2006: −35 vs the 30-year average2007: −60 vs the 30-year average2008: +14 vs the 30-year average2009: +12 vs the 30-year average2010: −27 vs the 30-year average2011: +58 vs the 30-year average2012: +2 vs the 30-year average2013: +16 vs the 30-year average2014: −14 vs the 30-year average2015: −11 vs the 30-year average2016: −23 vs the 30-year average2017: −7 vs the 30-year average2018: +6 vs the 30-year average2019: +27 vs the 30-year average2020: −2 vs the 30-year average2021: −48 vs the 30-year average2022: +49 vs the 30-year average2023: +51 vs the 30-year average2024: +54 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

3 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −3 vs the 30-year average1996: +10 vs the 30-year average1997: +9 vs the 30-year average1998: −3 vs the 30-year average1999: −4 vs the 30-year average2000: +0 vs the 30-year average2001: −2 vs the 30-year average2002: +1 vs the 30-year average2003: −1 vs the 30-year average2004: +0 vs the 30-year average2005: −5 vs the 30-year average2006: −3 vs the 30-year average2007: +1 vs the 30-year average2008: −2 vs the 30-year average2009: −2 vs the 30-year average2010: +12 vs the 30-year average2011: +8 vs the 30-year average2012: −7 vs the 30-year average2013: −1 vs the 30-year average2014: +4 vs the 30-year average2015: −5 vs the 30-year average2016: −4 vs the 30-year average2017: −5 vs the 30-year average2018: +3 vs the 30-year average2019: −4 vs the 30-year average2020: −7 vs the 30-year average2021: +5 vs the 30-year average2022: +6 vs the 30-year average2023: −8 vs the 30-year average2024: −2 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−4%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +0% vs the 30-year average1996: +10% vs the 30-year average1997: −4% vs the 30-year average1998: +5% vs the 30-year average1999: +0% vs the 30-year average2000: +5% vs the 30-year average2001: +0% vs the 30-year average2002: +5% vs the 30-year average2003: −4% vs the 30-year average2004: −2% vs the 30-year average2005: −7% vs the 30-year average2006: −2% vs the 30-year average2007: −9% vs the 30-year average2008: +7% vs the 30-year average2009: +5% vs the 30-year average2010: −2% vs the 30-year average2011: +12% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: +3% vs the 30-year average2014: +3% vs the 30-year average2015: −7% vs the 30-year average2016: −7% vs the 30-year average2017: +0% vs the 30-year average2018: +0% vs the 30-year average2019: +0% vs the 30-year average2020: +0% vs the 30-year average2021: −4% vs the 30-year average2022: +3% vs the 30-year average2023: −4% vs the 30-year average2024: −4% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.4°F−5−3+0%
1996−0.8°F−9+10+10%
1997−2.7°F−16+9−4%
1998+0.5°F+27−3+5%
1999+1.0°F−7−4+0%
2000+0.5°F+10+0+5%
2001−0.8°F+5−2+0%
2002−0.9°F−16+1+5%
2003−1.1°F−21−1−4%
2004−0.8°F−34+0−2%
2005±0.0°F+14−5−7%
2006+0.5°F−35−3−2%
2007−2.2°F−60+1−9%
2008+0.1°F+14−2+7%
2009±0.0°F+12−2+5%
2010−2.2°F−27+12−2%
2011+1.6°F+58+8+12%
2012+1.4°F+2−7−2%
2013−0.8°F+16−1+3%
2014−1.3°F−14+4+3%
2015−0.6°F−11−5−7%
2016+0.9°F−23−4−7%
2017+1.2°F−7−5+0%
2018−0.4°F+6+3+0%
2019+0.3°F+27−4+0%
2020+1.2°F−2−7+0%
2021−0.4°F−48+5−4%
2022+0.9°F+49+6+3%
2023+2.5°F+51−8−4%
2024+2.8°F+54−2−4%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Victoria, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Victoria?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F98±0.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
59
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.5 mph045% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°85° to 86°±1%1% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±3°81° to 84°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±3°81° to 83°±44%9% to 53% chance
Tue±2°78° to 80°±24%30% to 54% chance
Wed±2°82° to 83°±21%20% to 41% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Victoria

today, local time
Sunrise
07:34
Sunset
18:49
Daylight
11h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Victoria today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 86° in Victoria today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 83°, with a 1% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Victoria today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Victoria on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 1% (NWS 1%, American 1%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Victoria?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Victoria (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 59. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Victoria?
August is typically the warmest month in Victoria, with average highs around 94°F.
How cold does Victoria get?
The coldest month in Victoria is January, when overnight lows average about 47°F.
How much rain does Victoria get?
Victoria sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Victoria getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Victoria, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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