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CheckWeather USVictoria
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Victoria weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Victoria's high today between 93° and 99°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 94°, with a 95% chance of rain.

96°79°
94°78°
95°78°
97°78°
96°78°
97°78°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±10°Thursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Showers
Today 93°·Low 77°·Rain 19%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Cloudy
Today 99°·Low 79°·Rain 19%
EuropeanECMWF
96°
Thunderstorm
Today 96°·Low 80°·Rain 90%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Victoria and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
96° 79°
±6°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
94° 78°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
95° 78°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
97° 78°
±7°
Wed
Light drizzle
96° 78°
±10°
Thu
Mostly clear
97° 78°
±7°
Fri
Mostly clear
97° 79°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
96° 80°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
95° 80°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
93° 79°
±11°
Tue
Thunderstorm
96° 76°
±11°
Wed
Showers
87° 73°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
93° 76°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
93° 73°
models agree

Victoria, TX is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 98°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 48°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Victoria right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Victoria climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
66°
48°
Feb
71°
53°
Mar
76°
61°
Apr
81°
64°
May
87°
72°
Jun
94°
78°
Jul
95°
78°
Aug
98°
79°
Sep
93°
76°
Oct
86°
68°
Nov
76°
59°
Dec
70°
53°

Which forecast is most accurate in Victoria?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F98±0.8 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F94±2.0 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°93° to 99°±71%19% to 90% chance
Tomorrow±3°93° to 96°±73%22% to 95% chance
Mon±1°95° to 96°±32%19% to 51% chance
Tue±7°94° to 101°±51%11% to 62% chance
Wed±10°92° to 103°±48%23% to 71% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Victoria

today, local time
Sunrise
07:08
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
12h 37m

Common questions

What's the weather in Victoria today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Victoria today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Victoria today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Victoria and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Victoria?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Victoria (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Victoria?
August is typically the warmest month in Victoria, with average highs around 98°F.
How cold does Victoria get?
The coldest month in Victoria is January, when overnight lows average about 48°F.
How much rain does Victoria get?
Victoria sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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