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Valparaiso weather

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NWSNational Blend (NBM)
54°
Mainly clear
Feels 51° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 83%
AmericanNOAA GFS
50°
Clear
Feels 45° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 81%
EuropeanECMWF
51°
Overcast
Feels 47° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 83%

Latest for Valparaiso: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 54° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 50° Clear · European (ECMWF): 51° Overcast.

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Valparaiso weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Valparaiso weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Valparaiso swings 62°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 19°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 41 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 98 days a year at 77°F or above, 27 of them at 86°F or above, 112 frost nights, and rain on 136 days.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
January
19°F average low
Wettest month
July
41 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
33,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
98 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
112 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
136 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Valparaiso’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Valparaiso and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Valparaiso hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Valparaiso 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Valparaiso, Indiana (IN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 19°F), with roughly 41 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Valparaiso right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Valparaiso climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
31°
19°
Feb
39°
20°
Mar
46°
28°
Apr
58°
38°
May
70°
49°
Jun
80°
59°
Jul
81°
62°
Aug
80°
62°
Sep
74°
55°
Oct
61°
44°
Nov
47°
33°
Dec
36°
25°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Valparaiso has changed since 1995

Valparaiso sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Portage. That square ran 1.7°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Portage page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Valparaiso?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±0.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F97±1.1 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Valparaiso today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Valparaiso today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Valparaiso today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Valparaiso and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Valparaiso?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Valparaiso (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Valparaiso?
July is typically the warmest month in Valparaiso, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Valparaiso get?
The coldest month in Valparaiso is January, when overnight lows average about 19°F.
How much rain does Valparaiso get?
Valparaiso sees roughly 41 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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