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CheckWeather USUrbana
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Urbana weather

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Showers,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 93° in Urbana today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 82°, with a 1% chance of rain.

93°73°
82°67°
81°61°
89°62°
91°73°
81°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Showers
Today 93°·Low 73°·Rain 8%
AmericanNOAA GFS
94°
Mostly clear
Today 94°·Low 73°·Rain 8%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Thunderstorm
Today 92°·Low 73°·Rain 76%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Urbana and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
93° 73°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
82° 67°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
81° 61°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
89° 62°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
91° 73°
±5°
Thu
Heavy drizzle
81° 66°
±6°
Fri
Mostly clear
83° 60°
±15°
Sat
Mostly clear
87° 65°
±5°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
88° 67°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
80° 63°
±12°
Tue
Mostly clear
73° 55°
±13°
Wed
Clear
72° 51°
±7°
Thu
Cloudy
75° 53°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
70° 56°
±4°

Urbana, IL is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 25°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Urbana right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Urbana climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
38°
25°
Feb
49°
29°
Mar
53°
34°
Apr
64°
44°
May
76°
55°
Jun
84°
64°
Jul
83°
66°
Aug
82°
65°
Sep
78°
60°
Oct
67°
49°
Nov
53°
38°
Dec
43°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Urbana?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F97±1.0 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°92° to 94°±68%8% to 76% chance
Tomorrow±1°81° to 82°±1%0% to 1% chance
Monmodels agree81° to 81°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°88° to 90°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±5°89° to 94°±9%18% to 27% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Urbana

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:18
Daylight
12h 54m

Common questions

What's the weather in Urbana today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Urbana today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Urbana today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Urbana and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Urbana?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Urbana (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Urbana?
June is typically the warmest month in Urbana, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Urbana get?
The coldest month in Urbana is January, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Urbana get?
Urbana sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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