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CheckWeather USSt. Louis
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

St. Louis weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put St. Louis's high today between 97° and 102°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 92°, with a 4% chance of rain.

100°78°
92°74°
89°67°
97°68°
99°77°
86°73°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
100°
Drizzle
Today 100°·Low 79°·Rain 8%
AmericanNOAA GFS
102°
Cloudy
Today 102°·Low 77°·Rain 8%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Partly cloudy
Today 97°·Low 80°·Rain 41%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around St. Louis and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
100° 78°
±6°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
92° 74°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
89° 67°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
97° 68°
±5°
Wed
Partly cloudy
99° 77°
models agree
Thu
Showers
86° 73°
±8°
Fri
Light drizzle
89° 69°
±17°
Sat
Light drizzle
89° 69°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
91° 70°
±13°
Mon
Light drizzle
82° 66°
±16°
Tue
Light drizzle
79° 62°
±8°
Wed
Clear
77° 58°
models agree
Thu
Clear
79° 59°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
78° 62°
±5°

St. Louis, MO is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 27°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for St. Louis right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

St. Louis climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
42°
27°
Feb
54°
33°
Mar
58°
38°
Apr
69°
47°
May
79°
58°
Jun
87°
66°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
86°
69°
Sep
81°
62°
Oct
70°
50°
Nov
57°
40°
Dec
48°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in St. Louis?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F97±1.0 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
67
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F93±2.0 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°97° to 102°±33%8% to 41% chance
Tomorrow±1°91° to 92°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±1°88° to 89°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±5°95° to 100°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°98° to 101°±11%22% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in St. Louis

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
19:25
Daylight
12h 52m

Common questions

What's the weather in St. Louis today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for St. Louis today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in St. Louis today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for St. Louis and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for St. Louis?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for St. Louis (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 67. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in St. Louis?
July is typically the warmest month in St. Louis, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does St. Louis get?
The coldest month in St. Louis is January, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does St. Louis get?
St. Louis sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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