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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Springfield weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 98° in Springfield today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 100°, with a 51% chance of rain.

98°76°
100°77°
96°73°
99°72°
101°77°
88°73°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±7°Thursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Light drizzle
Today 99°·Low 75°·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
99°
Partly cloudy
Today 99°·Low 75°·Rain 6%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Light drizzle
Today 97°·Low 77°·Rain 31%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Springfield and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
98° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
100° 77°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
96° 73°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
99° 72°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
101° 77°
±7°
Thu
Showers
88° 73°
±10°
Fri
Light drizzle
89° 70°
±5°
Sat
Light drizzle
97° 72°
±11°
Sun
Drizzle
90° 68°
±13°
Mon
Mostly clear
82° 62°
±13°
Tue
Light drizzle
79° 59°
±7°
Wed
Clear
79° 56°
±12°
Thu
Clear
83° 59°
±10°
Fri
Mostly clear
84° 62°
±6°

Springfield, MO is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 26°F), with roughly 39 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Springfield right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Springfield climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
43°
26°
Feb
55°
34°
Mar
59°
39°
Apr
68°
47°
May
78°
58°
Jun
86°
65°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
89°
69°
Sep
83°
62°
Oct
73°
52°
Nov
58°
40°
Dec
50°
35°

Which forecast is most accurate in Springfield?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F96±1.4 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°97° to 99°±25%6% to 31% chance
Tomorrow±2°99° to 100°±39%12% to 51% chance
Mon±2°95° to 97°models agree10% to 10% chance
Tue±3°98° to 101°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±7°98° to 105°±8%12% to 20% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Springfield

today, local time
Sunrise
06:47
Sunset
19:36
Daylight
12h 49m

Common questions

What's the weather in Springfield today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Springfield today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Springfield today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Springfield and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Springfield?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Springfield (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Springfield?
August is typically the warmest month in Springfield, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Springfield get?
The coldest month in Springfield is January, when overnight lows average about 26°F.
How much rain does Springfield get?
Springfield sees roughly 39 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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