Sioux Falls weekend weather
This weekend in Sioux Falls, SD, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.
Weekend
The models centre on about 83° across the weekend. Agreement is medium — plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day.
Sat
2026-08-01 — every model, side by sideNWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Mostly clear
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Cloudy
EuropeanECMWF
81°
Clear
All 3 models land within 3° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.
Sun
2026-08-02 — every model, side by sideNWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Mostly clear
AmericanNOAA GFS
87°
Cloudy
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Mostly clear
The models range from 81° to 87°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Common questions
Will it rain this weekend?
The models are not currently showing a high weekend rain risk, and they broadly agree with each other.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.