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CheckWeather USSaint Joseph
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Saint Joseph weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 99° in Saint Joseph today. Tomorrow looks rain around 97°, with a 45% chance of rain.

99°74°
97°75°
94°73°
103°78°
88°73°
87°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±14°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Light drizzle
Today 99°·Low 74°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
100°
Mostly clear
Today 100°·Low 72°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
98°
Partly cloudy
Today 98°·Low 75°·Rain 22%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Saint Joseph and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
99° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
97° 75°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
94° 73°
±7°
Tue
Mostly clear
103° 78°
±9°
Wed
Light drizzle
88° 73°
±5°
Thu
Drizzle
87° 66°
±14°
Fri
Light drizzle
86° 68°
±12°
Sat
Light drizzle
92° 70°
±7°
Sun
Light rain
83° 65°
±12°
Mon
Drizzle
73° 56°
±11°
Tue
Drizzle
75° 54°
±13°
Wed
Clear
76° 53°
±10°
Thu
Clear
77° 56°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
78° 58°
models agree

Saint Joseph, MO is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 86°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 21°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Saint Joseph right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Saint Joseph climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
36°
21°
Feb
51°
28°
Mar
55°
35°
Apr
67°
46°
May
77°
56°
Jun
86°
67°
Jul
86°
69°
Aug
85°
68°
Sep
81°
62°
Oct
70°
52°
Nov
54°
38°
Dec
44°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Saint Joseph?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F98±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F95±1.5 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°98° to 100°±19%3% to 22% chance
Tomorrow±3°95° to 99°±15%30% to 45% chance
Mon±7°90° to 97°±5%8% to 13% chance
Tue±9°99° to 109°±5%2% to 7% chance
Wed±5°85° to 90°±10%47% to 57% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Saint Joseph

today, local time
Sunrise
06:51
Sunset
19:44
Daylight
12h 53m

Common questions

What's the weather in Saint Joseph today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Saint Joseph today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Saint Joseph today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Saint Joseph and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Saint Joseph?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Saint Joseph (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Saint Joseph?
June is typically the warmest month in Saint Joseph, with average highs around 86°F.
How cold does Saint Joseph get?
The coldest month in Saint Joseph is January, when overnight lows average about 21°F.
How much rain does Saint Joseph get?
Saint Joseph sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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