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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Provo weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 57° in Provo today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 57°, with a 25% chance of rain.

57°39°
57°43°
64°44°
58°43°
64°44°
65°45°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±6°Thursdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
39°
Clear
Feels 35° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
40°
Clear
Feels 34° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 81%
EuropeanECMWF
41°
Clear
Feels 37° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 88%

Latest for Provo: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 39° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 40° Clear · European (ECMWF): 41° Clear.

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Provo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Provo…

Provo weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Provo swings 72°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 16°F lows in December, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 17 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 110 days a year at 77°F or above, 64 of them at 86°F or above, 124 frost nights, and rain on 89 days.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
December
16°F average low
Wettest month
October
17 in a year
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and September
Residents
115,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
110 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
124 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
89 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Provo’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Provo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Provo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Provo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
57° 39°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
57° 43°
±4°
Mon
Mostly clear
64° 44°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
58° 43°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
64° 44°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
65° 45°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
62° 49°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
58° 47°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
55° 43°
±8°
Mon
Cloudy
56° 42°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
61° 43°
models agree
Wed
Clear
55° 41°
±16°
Thu
Partly cloudy
56° 42°
±17°

Provo, Utah (UT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 16°F), with roughly 17 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Provo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Provo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
37°
24°
Feb
41°
24°
Mar
46°
29°
Apr
53°
34°
May
67°
43°
Jun
78°
54°
Jul
88°
61°
Aug
85°
61°
Sep
76°
51°
Oct
61°
39°
Nov
47°
28°
Dec
35°
16°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Provo's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.4°F

Around Provo, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004. 7 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average1996: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.9°F vs the 30-year average1998: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2001: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2002: +0.2°F vs the 30-year average2003: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2005: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2006: −0.3°F vs the 30-year average2007: +0.6°F vs the 30-year average2008: −2.3°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.9°F vs the 30-year average2010: −1.4°F vs the 30-year average2011: −2.8°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.5°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.6°F vs the 30-year average2014: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2015: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.3°F vs the 30-year average2017: +1.1°F vs the 30-year average2018: +1.7°F vs the 30-year average2019: −1.2°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.9°F vs the 30-year average2021: +1.9°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.8°F vs the 30-year average2023: −0.5°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.0°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

7 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −9 vs the 30-year average1996: −8 vs the 30-year average1997: −9 vs the 30-year average1998: −5 vs the 30-year average1999: −8 vs the 30-year average2000: +3 vs the 30-year average2001: +0 vs the 30-year average2002: +14 vs the 30-year average2003: +8 vs the 30-year average2004: −9 vs the 30-year average2005: +0 vs the 30-year average2006: +0 vs the 30-year average2007: +3 vs the 30-year average2008: −7 vs the 30-year average2009: −7 vs the 30-year average2010: −7 vs the 30-year average2011: −8 vs the 30-year average2012: −3 vs the 30-year average2013: +3 vs the 30-year average2014: −3 vs the 30-year average2015: −6 vs the 30-year average2016: +2 vs the 30-year average2017: +1 vs the 30-year average2018: +5 vs the 30-year average2019: −5 vs the 30-year average2020: +11 vs the 30-year average2021: +16 vs the 30-year average2022: +11 vs the 30-year average2023: +2 vs the 30-year average2024: +10 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

8 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −7 vs the 30-year average1996: +14 vs the 30-year average1997: +15 vs the 30-year average1998: +5 vs the 30-year average1999: +9 vs the 30-year average2000: −0 vs the 30-year average2001: −9 vs the 30-year average2002: +3 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: −12 vs the 30-year average2005: −4 vs the 30-year average2006: +11 vs the 30-year average2007: −15 vs the 30-year average2008: +24 vs the 30-year average2009: +9 vs the 30-year average2010: +18 vs the 30-year average2011: +28 vs the 30-year average2012: −19 vs the 30-year average2013: +7 vs the 30-year average2014: −9 vs the 30-year average2015: −28 vs the 30-year average2016: −25 vs the 30-year average2017: −16 vs the 30-year average2018: −7 vs the 30-year average2019: −0 vs the 30-year average2020: +3 vs the 30-year average2021: −8 vs the 30-year average2022: +12 vs the 30-year average2023: +11 vs the 30-year average2024: +1 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +0% vs the 30-year average1996: +7% vs the 30-year average1997: −3% vs the 30-year average1998: −3% vs the 30-year average1999: +4% vs the 30-year average2000: +0% vs the 30-year average2001: +0% vs the 30-year average2002: +0% vs the 30-year average2003: −3% vs the 30-year average2004: −3% vs the 30-year average2005: −3% vs the 30-year average2006: −3% vs the 30-year average2007: +0% vs the 30-year average2008: +0% vs the 30-year average2009: +0% vs the 30-year average2010: +4% vs the 30-year average2011: −3% vs the 30-year average2012: +4% vs the 30-year average2013: −6% vs the 30-year average2014: +0% vs the 30-year average2015: −6% vs the 30-year average2016: +7% vs the 30-year average2017: +4% vs the 30-year average2018: +0% vs the 30-year average2019: +0% vs the 30-year average2020: +4% vs the 30-year average2021: +0% vs the 30-year average2022: −3% vs the 30-year average2023: −3% vs the 30-year average2024: +4% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.4°F−9−7+0%
1996−1.2°F−8+14+7%
1997−1.9°F−9+15−3%
1998−1.7°F−5+5−3%
1999−0.1°F−8+9+4%
2000+0.6°F+3−0+0%
2001+1.0°F+0−9+0%
2002+0.2°F+14+3+0%
2003+1.5°F+8+4−3%
2004−0.5°F−9−12−3%
2005−0.3°F+0−4−3%
2006−0.3°F+0+11−3%
2007+0.6°F+3−15+0%
2008−2.3°F−7+24+0%
2009−1.9°F−7+9+0%
2010−1.4°F−7+18+4%
2011−2.8°F−8+28−3%
2012+1.5°F−3−19+4%
2013−1.6°F+3+7−6%
2014+1.3°F−3−9+0%
2015+1.7°F−6−28−6%
2016+1.3°F+2−25+7%
2017+1.1°F+1−16+4%
2018+1.7°F+5−7+0%
2019−1.2°F−5−0+0%
2020+1.9°F+11+3+4%
2021+1.9°F+16−8+0%
2022+0.8°F+11+12−3%
2023−0.5°F+2+11−3%
2024+2.0°F+10+1+4%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Provo, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Provo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
81±1.9°F96±1.2 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
61±3.9°F86±4.4 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°56° to 59°±3%3% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±4°55° to 59°±11%14% to 25% chance
Mon±3°62° to 65°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tue±7°55° to 62°±16%12% to 28% chance
Wed±6°61° to 67°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Provo

today, local time
Sunrise
07:47
Sunset
18:33
Daylight
10h 46m

Common questions

What's the weather in Provo today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 57° in Provo today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 57°, with a 25% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Provo today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Provo on Sunday, October 25: NWS 14%, American 14%, European 25%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 6%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Provo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Provo (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Provo?
July is typically the warmest month in Provo, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Provo get?
The coldest month in Provo is December, when overnight lows average about 16°F.
How much rain does Provo get?
Provo sees roughly 17 in of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Provo getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Provo, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004.

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