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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Providence weather

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Partly cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Providence today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 69°, with a 90% chance of rain.

73°62°
69°59°
77°55°
80°59°
76°61°
79°67°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±8°Thursdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
73°
Partly cloudy
Today 73°·Low 61°·Rain 22%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 61°·Rain 22%
EuropeanECMWF
73°
Light drizzle
Today 73°·Low 63°·Rain 98%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Providence and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
73° 62°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
69° 59°
models agree
Mon
Clear
77° 55°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
80° 59°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
76° 61°
±8°
Thu
Light drizzle
79° 67°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
76° 62°
±12°
Sat
Clear
76° 59°
±10°
Sun
Partly cloudy
79° 61°
±12°
Mon
Light drizzle
82° 66°
±16°
Tue
Drizzle
76° 63°
±11°
Wed
Light drizzle
78° 60°
±14°
Thu
Cloudy
73° 57°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
69° 56°
±8°

Providence, RI is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 57 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Providence right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Providence climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
41°
28°
Feb
43°
25°
Mar
49°
32°
Apr
60°
41°
May
69°
49°
Jun
78°
59°
Jul
84°
68°
Aug
79°
63°
Sep
74°
58°
Oct
65°
48°
Nov
52°
36°
Dec
44°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Providence?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F94±1.9 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°73° to 74°±76%22% to 98% chance
Tomorrow±2°68° to 70°±48%42% to 90% chance
Monmodels agree77° to 77°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°79° to 81°±26%1% to 27% chance
Wed±8°73° to 80°±1%15% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Providence

today, local time
Sunrise
06:15
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Providence today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Providence today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Providence today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Providence and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Providence?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Providence (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Providence?
July is typically the warmest month in Providence, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Providence get?
The coldest month in Providence is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Providence get?
Providence sees roughly 57 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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