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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Novi weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 64° in Novi today. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 67°, with a 2% chance of rain.

64°42°
67°43°
65°49°
57°44°
63°46°
71°48°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
64°
Mostly clear
Today 64°·Low 42°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
66°
Cloudy
Today 66°·Low 41°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
62°
Mostly clear
Today 62°·Low 44°·Rain 0%
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Novi weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Novi…

Novi weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Novi swings 62°F across the year, from 80°F highs in July to 18°F lows in February, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 35 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 88 days a year at 77°F or above, 19 of them at 86°F or above, 121 frost nights, and rain on 133 days.

Warmest month
July
80°F average high
Coldest month
February
18°F average low
Wettest month
May
35 in a year
Comfortable
2 months
June and September
Residents
59,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
99/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
88 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
121 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
133 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Novi’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Novi and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Novi hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Novi 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
64° 42°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
67° 43°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
65° 49°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
57° 44°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
63° 46°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
71° 48°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
66° 47°
±9°
Sat
Cloudy
63° 50°
±5°
Sun
Drizzle
65° 51°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
59° 43°
±7°
Tue
Cloudy
47° 37°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
48° 34°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
54° 41°
±15°

Novi, Michigan (MI) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 80°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 18°F), with roughly 35 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Novi right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Novi climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
30°
20°
Feb
35°
18°
Mar
43°
27°
Apr
56°
37°
May
70°
48°
Jun
78°
58°
Jul
80°
63°
Aug
80°
63°
Sep
72°
56°
Oct
59°
44°
Nov
46°
33°
Dec
35°
25°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Novi has changed since 1995

Novi sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Ann Arbor. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Ann Arbor page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Novi?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
99
/100rank #1
98±0.2°F99±0.3 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F96±1.4 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°62° to 66°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°65° to 68°±1%1% to 2% chance
Mon±3°63° to 66°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±3°55° to 58°±10%0% to 10% chance
Wed±3°62° to 65°±9%7% to 16% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Novi

today, local time
Sunrise
07:57
Sunset
18:37
Daylight
10h 40m

Common questions

What's the weather in Novi today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 64° in Novi today. Tomorrow: partly cloudy, around 67°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Novi today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Novi on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (NWS 1%, American 1%, European 2%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Novi?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Novi (CheckWeather Score 99/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Novi?
July is typically the warmest month in Novi, with average highs around 80°F.
How cold does Novi get?
The coldest month in Novi is February, when overnight lows average about 18°F.
How much rain does Novi get?
Novi sees roughly 35 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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