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Norman weekend weather

This weekend in Norman, OK, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split — so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 93° across the weekend. Agreement is medium — plausible, but worth re-checking closer to the day.

Sat

2026-08-01 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
91°
Partly cloudy
High 91°·Low 74°·Rain 11%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Cloudy
High 96°·Low 70°·Rain 11%
EuropeanECMWF
95°
Partly cloudy
High 95°·Low 78°·Rain 2%

The models range from 91° to 96°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Sun

2026-08-02 — every model, side by side
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
90°
Clear
High 90°·Low 69°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Clear
High 96°·Low 65°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Clear
High 94°·Low 73°·Rain 0%

The models range from 90° to 96°. Treat the middle of that range as the likely outcome and keep a backup plan.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°100° to 102°±13%3% to 16% chance
Tomorrow±6°99° to 105°±55%12% to 67% chance
Sat±5°91° to 96°±9%2% to 11% chance
Sun±6°90° to 96°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±8°93° to 101°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
The models are not currently showing a high weekend rain risk, and they broadly agree with each other.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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