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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Montgomery weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 74° in Montgomery today. Tomorrow: clear, around 73°, with a 0% chance of rain.

74°49°
73°52°
75°53°
76°50°
75°52°
77°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
54°
Clear
Feels 51° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 77%
AmericanNOAA GFS
51°
Clear
Feels 48° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 76%
EuropeanECMWF
53°
Clear
Feels 49° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 73%

Latest for Montgomery: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 54° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 51° Clear · European (ECMWF): 53° Clear.

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Montgomery weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Montgomery…

Montgomery weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Montgomery swings 52°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 39°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 53 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 198 days a year at 77°F or above, 121 of them at 86°F or above, 14 frost nights, and rain on 124 days.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
39°F average low
Wettest month
March
53 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
February, April, October and November
Residents
195,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
95/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
198 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
14 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
124 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Montgomery’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Montgomery and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Montgomery hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Montgomery 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
74° 49°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
73° 52°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
75° 53°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
76° 50°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
75° 52°
±4°
Thu
Mostly clear
77° 53°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
79° 55°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
79° 57°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
79° 60°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
74° 57°
±10°
Tue
Mostly clear
71° 48°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
71° 49°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
74° 50°
models agree

Montgomery, Alabama (AL) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 39°F), with roughly 53 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Montgomery right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Montgomery climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
57°
39°
Feb
62°
42°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
76°
55°
May
84°
64°
Jun
90°
70°
Jul
91°
73°
Aug
91°
71°
Sep
85°
67°
Oct
77°
56°
Nov
64°
46°
Dec
60°
41°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Montgomery's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.7°F

Around Montgomery, 2015-2024 averaged 1.7°F warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2019.

1995: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average1996: −2.0°F vs the 30-year average1997: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average1998: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average1999: −0.1°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2001: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2002: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2003: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average2004: −0.2°F vs the 30-year average2005: −1.0°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.7°F vs the 30-year average2007: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2008: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2009: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average2010: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2011: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2014: −1.7°F vs the 30-year average2015: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2016: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2019: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2021: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2022: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2023: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.1°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

6 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +21 vs the 30-year average1996: −10 vs the 30-year average1997: −18 vs the 30-year average1998: +18 vs the 30-year average1999: −3 vs the 30-year average2000: +38 vs the 30-year average2001: −23 vs the 30-year average2002: +7 vs the 30-year average2003: −30 vs the 30-year average2004: −16 vs the 30-year average2005: −26 vs the 30-year average2006: +23 vs the 30-year average2007: +20 vs the 30-year average2008: −11 vs the 30-year average2009: −30 vs the 30-year average2010: +39 vs the 30-year average2011: +29 vs the 30-year average2012: −4 vs the 30-year average2013: −30 vs the 30-year average2014: −19 vs the 30-year average2015: −4 vs the 30-year average2016: +11 vs the 30-year average2017: −29 vs the 30-year average2018: −15 vs the 30-year average2019: +34 vs the 30-year average2020: +8 vs the 30-year average2021: −18 vs the 30-year average2022: +13 vs the 30-year average2023: +9 vs the 30-year average2024: +27 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

12 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F

1995: +12 vs the 30-year average1996: +18 vs the 30-year average1997: −7 vs the 30-year average1998: −14 vs the 30-year average1999: −4 vs the 30-year average2000: +12 vs the 30-year average2001: −1 vs the 30-year average2002: +6 vs the 30-year average2003: +14 vs the 30-year average2004: +0 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: −5 vs the 30-year average2007: −2 vs the 30-year average2008: +6 vs the 30-year average2009: +11 vs the 30-year average2010: +33 vs the 30-year average2011: +1 vs the 30-year average2012: −17 vs the 30-year average2013: +4 vs the 30-year average2014: +15 vs the 30-year average2015: −1 vs the 30-year average2016: −7 vs the 30-year average2017: −14 vs the 30-year average2018: −5 vs the 30-year average2019: −15 vs the 30-year average2020: −12 vs the 30-year average2021: −14 vs the 30-year average2022: +3 vs the 30-year average2023: −14 vs the 30-year average2024: −5 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−3%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +4% vs the 30-year average1996: +1% vs the 30-year average1997: +1% vs the 30-year average1998: +4% vs the 30-year average1999: +1% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −3% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: −3% vs the 30-year average2004: +4% vs the 30-year average2005: +1% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +1% vs the 30-year average2008: +4% vs the 30-year average2009: +1% vs the 30-year average2010: −3% vs the 30-year average2011: +1% vs the 30-year average2012: −3% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: −3% vs the 30-year average2015: −3% vs the 30-year average2016: −3% vs the 30-year average2017: −3% vs the 30-year average2018: −3% vs the 30-year average2019: −3% vs the 30-year average2020: +4% vs the 30-year average2021: −3% vs the 30-year average2022: −3% vs the 30-year average2023: −3% vs the 30-year average2024: +1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.6°F+21+12+4%
1996−2.0°F−10+18+1%
1997−1.7°F−18−7+1%
1998+1.0°F+18−14+4%
1999−0.1°F−3−4+1%
2000+0.5°F+38+12+4%
2001−1.3°F−23−1−3%
2002+0.3°F+7+6+1%
2003−1.7°F−30+14−3%
2004−0.2°F−16+0+4%
2005−1.0°F−26−3+1%
2006+0.7°F+23−5+1%
2007+1.2°F+20−2+1%
2008−1.1°F−11+6+4%
2009−1.7°F−30+11+1%
2010−1.1°F+39+33−3%
2011+0.3°F+29+1+1%
2012+1.0°F−4−17−3%
2013−1.3°F−30+4+1%
2014−1.7°F−19+15−3%
2015+1.0°F−4−1−3%
2016+1.6°F+11−7−3%
2017+0.5°F−29−14−3%
2018+0.3°F−15−5−3%
2019+2.1°F+34−15−3%
2020+1.0°F+8−12+4%
2021+0.3°F−18−14−3%
2022+0.3°F+13+3−3%
2023+1.6°F+9−14−3%
2024+2.1°F+27−5+1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Montgomery, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Montgomery?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F96±1.4 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F91±2.7 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°73° to 76°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°71° to 75°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°74° to 75°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°75° to 77°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±4°72° to 77°±4%0% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Montgomery

today, local time
Sunrise
06:55
Sunset
18:02
Daylight
11h 7m

Common questions

What's the weather in Montgomery today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 74° in Montgomery today. Tomorrow: clear, around 73°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Montgomery today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Montgomery on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Montgomery?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Montgomery (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Montgomery?
July is typically the warmest month in Montgomery, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Montgomery get?
The coldest month in Montgomery is January, when overnight lows average about 39°F.
How much rain does Montgomery get?
Montgomery sees roughly 53 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.
Is Montgomery getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Montgomery, 2015-2024 averaged 1.7°F warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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