Modesto weather
Loading live data…Clear,warmer tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 71° in Modesto today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 77°, with a 0% chance of rain.
Latest for Modesto: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 50° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 50° Clear · European (ECMWF): 49° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Modesto weather alerts and warnings
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisoriesChecking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Modesto…
Modesto weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherModesto swings 61°F across the year, from 100°F highs in July to 39°F lows in December, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 14 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 179 days a year at 77°F or above, 130 of them at 86°F or above, 3 frost nights, and rain on 52 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Modesto’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Modesto and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Modesto hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Modesto 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitModesto, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 100°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 39°F), with roughly 14 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Modesto right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
Modesto climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Modesto's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Modesto, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004. 8 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2014.
Days above 95°F
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >95°F vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −0.4°F | −20 | −6 | +0% |
| 1996 | +0.3°F | −0 | −4 | +3% |
| 1997 | +0.3°F | −10 | +8 | +9% |
| 1998 | −2.4°F | −16 | +4 | −3% |
| 1999 | −1.6°F | −21 | +2 | +0% |
| 2000 | −0.7°F | −2 | −6 | +0% |
| 2001 | +0.2°F | +8 | +2 | +3% |
| 2002 | −0.6°F | +1 | +7 | +0% |
| 2003 | +0.3°F | −1 | −6 | −3% |
| 2004 | ±0.0°F | −4 | +1 | +0% |
| 2005 | ±0.0°F | −11 | −3 | −6% |
| 2006 | −0.9°F | −2 | +1 | −6% |
| 2007 | −0.9°F | −14 | +14 | +0% |
| 2008 | −0.6°F | +17 | −0 | +3% |
| 2009 | −0.7°F | −1 | +3 | +0% |
| 2010 | −2.0°F | −17 | −1 | +0% |
| 2011 | −2.4°F | −5 | +5 | +0% |
| 2012 | −0.2°F | +8 | +1 | +3% |
| 2013 | ±0.0°F | −9 | +11 | +0% |
| 2014 | +2.5°F | +10 | −4 | −3% |
| 2015 | +1.4°F | −2 | −0 | −3% |
| 2016 | +0.7°F | +2 | −0 | +0% |
| 2017 | +0.9°F | +11 | −0 | +0% |
| 2018 | +0.9°F | +7 | −3 | −3% |
| 2019 | +0.2°F | −1 | +2 | +0% |
| 2020 | +1.8°F | +25 | −4 | −3% |
| 2021 | +0.9°F | +19 | −7 | +3% |
| 2022 | +1.2°F | +16 | −1 | +0% |
| 2023 | −0.6°F | −3 | +1 | +0% |
| 2024 | +2.1°F | +17 | −6 | +0% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Modesto, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Modesto?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.