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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Midland weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in Midland today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 73°, with a 45% chance of rain.

76°61°
73°64°
68°61°
73°58°
76°60°
74°62°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
63°
Overcast
Feels 60° · Wind 14 mph · Humidity 83%
AmericanNOAA GFS
62°
Overcast
Feels 60° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 84%
EuropeanECMWF
62°
Overcast
Feels 58° · Wind 14 mph · Humidity 81%

Latest for Midland: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 63° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 62° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 62° Overcast.

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Midland weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Midland…

Midland weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Midland swings 58°F across the year, from 93°F highs in June to 35°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 15 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 210 days a year at 77°F or above, 140 of them at 86°F or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 52 days.

Warmest month
June
93°F average high
Coldest month
January
35°F average low
Wettest month
August
15 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, October and November
Residents
133,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
210 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
29 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
52 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Midland’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Midland and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Midland hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Midland 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
76° 61°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
73° 64°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
68° 61°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
73° 58°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
76° 60°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
74° 62°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
70° 63°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
76° 62°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
77° 62°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
71° 56°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
69° 50°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
74° 52°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
65° 52°
models agree

Midland, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 93°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 35°F), with roughly 15 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Midland right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Midland climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
58°
35°
Feb
63°
38°
Mar
70°
45°
Apr
79°
53°
May
86°
62°
Jun
93°
68°
Jul
93°
70°
Aug
92°
70°
Sep
86°
65°
Oct
77°
54°
Nov
65°
43°
Dec
58°
36°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Midland's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.3°F

Around Midland, 2015-2024 averaged 1.3°F warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average1996: −0.4°F vs the 30-year average1997: −2.4°F vs the 30-year average1998: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average1999: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2000: +0.7°F vs the 30-year average2001: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2002: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2003: ±0.0°F vs the 30-year average2004: −1.5°F vs the 30-year average2005: −1.3°F vs the 30-year average2006: +0.5°F vs the 30-year average2007: −2.9°F vs the 30-year average2008: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2009: −0.8°F vs the 30-year average2010: −1.8°F vs the 30-year average2011: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2012: +1.0°F vs the 30-year average2013: −1.1°F vs the 30-year average2014: −0.9°F vs the 30-year average2015: −0.6°F vs the 30-year average2016: +0.7°F vs the 30-year average2017: +0.9°F vs the 30-year average2018: +0.1°F vs the 30-year average2019: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2020: +1.6°F vs the 30-year average2021: +0.3°F vs the 30-year average2022: +1.2°F vs the 30-year average2023: +2.7°F vs the 30-year average2024: +2.8°F vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 95°F

11 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −16 vs the 30-year average1996: −4 vs the 30-year average1997: −15 vs the 30-year average1998: +15 vs the 30-year average1999: −5 vs the 30-year average2000: +33 vs the 30-year average2001: +14 vs the 30-year average2002: +0 vs the 30-year average2003: −19 vs the 30-year average2004: −18 vs the 30-year average2005: −27 vs the 30-year average2006: −4 vs the 30-year average2007: −64 vs the 30-year average2008: −13 vs the 30-year average2009: −9 vs the 30-year average2010: −24 vs the 30-year average2011: +48 vs the 30-year average2012: +11 vs the 30-year average2013: −6 vs the 30-year average2014: −4 vs the 30-year average2015: −8 vs the 30-year average2016: −10 vs the 30-year average2017: −12 vs the 30-year average2018: +21 vs the 30-year average2019: +5 vs the 30-year average2020: +33 vs the 30-year average2021: −17 vs the 30-year average2022: +24 vs the 30-year average2023: +36 vs the 30-year average2024: +28 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

8 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −6 vs the 30-year average1996: +9 vs the 30-year average1997: +17 vs the 30-year average1998: −9 vs the 30-year average1999: −12 vs the 30-year average2000: +6 vs the 30-year average2001: +6 vs the 30-year average2002: +14 vs the 30-year average2003: −4 vs the 30-year average2004: −6 vs the 30-year average2005: −13 vs the 30-year average2006: −4 vs the 30-year average2007: +21 vs the 30-year average2008: +1 vs the 30-year average2009: +9 vs the 30-year average2010: +10 vs the 30-year average2011: +9 vs the 30-year average2012: −8 vs the 30-year average2013: +19 vs the 30-year average2014: +11 vs the 30-year average2015: +9 vs the 30-year average2016: −8 vs the 30-year average2017: −16 vs the 30-year average2018: −0 vs the 30-year average2019: −0 vs the 30-year average2020: −4 vs the 30-year average2021: −16 vs the 30-year average2022: +18 vs the 30-year average2023: −17 vs the 30-year average2024: −25 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1% vs the 30-year average1996: +3% vs the 30-year average1997: −1% vs the 30-year average1998: +1% vs the 30-year average1999: +3% vs the 30-year average2000: +5% vs the 30-year average2001: −1% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: −1% vs the 30-year average2004: −1% vs the 30-year average2005: −7% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: −5% vs the 30-year average2008: +3% vs the 30-year average2009: −3% vs the 30-year average2010: +1% vs the 30-year average2011: +5% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: +3% vs the 30-year average2015: −3% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: +1% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: +1% vs the 30-year average2020: +3% vs the 30-year average2021: −1% vs the 30-year average2022: +1% vs the 30-year average2023: −3% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >95°F vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.4°F−16−6+1%
1996−0.4°F−4+9+3%
1997−2.4°F−15+17−1%
1998+1.2°F+15−9+1%
1999+0.9°F−5−12+3%
2000+0.7°F+33+6+5%
2001±0.0°F+14+6−1%
2002−0.9°F+0+14+1%
2003±0.0°F−19−4−1%
2004−1.5°F−18−6−1%
2005−1.3°F−27−13−7%
2006+0.5°F−4−4+1%
2007−2.9°F−64+21−5%
2008−1.1°F−13+1+3%
2009−0.8°F−9+9−3%
2010−1.8°F−24+10+1%
2011+1.6°F+48+9+5%
2012+1.0°F+11−8−1%
2013−1.1°F−6+19+1%
2014−0.9°F−4+11+3%
2015−0.6°F−8+9−3%
2016+0.7°F−10−8−1%
2017+0.9°F−12−16+1%
2018+0.1°F+21−0+1%
2019+0.3°F+5−0+1%
2020+1.6°F+33−4+3%
2021+0.3°F−17−16−1%
2022+1.2°F+24+18+1%
2023+2.7°F+36−17−3%
2024+2.8°F+28−25−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Midland, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Midland?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F95±1.6 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°75° to 78°±3%3% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±4°72° to 76°±23%22% to 45% chance
Mon±3°66° to 70°±14%53% to 67% chance
Tue±3°72° to 75°±10%31% to 41% chance
Wed±3°75° to 78°±11%1% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Midland

today, local time
Sunrise
07:58
Sunset
19:05
Daylight
11h 7m

Common questions

What's the weather in Midland today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in Midland today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 73°, with a 45% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Midland today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Midland on Sunday, October 25: NWS 22%, American 22%, European 45%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 6%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Midland?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Midland (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Midland?
June is typically the warmest month in Midland, with average highs around 93°F.
How cold does Midland get?
The coldest month in Midland is January, when overnight lows average about 35°F.
How much rain does Midland get?
Midland sees roughly 15 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Midland getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Midland, 2015-2024 averaged 1.3°F warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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More US weather

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